Harvard Business School
Working Paper No. 25-048
Date of Publication:
April 2025
This paper explores the impact of recent changes in the US trade policy environment on small businesses. Drawing on a survey of more than 4,000 small businesses conducted between March 22 and 31, 2025, we examine firms’ knowledge, expectations, and decisions during a period of substantial trade policy uncertainty. Our findings reveal widespread knowledge gaps about current tariffs, even among internationally exposed firms. Most businesses expect continued policy uncertainty throughout 2025, anticipate reduced sales and increased costs, face limited options for mitigating tariff-induced cost increases, and do not expect government assistance in facilitating adaptation. These results highlight the vulnerability of small businesses, which represent a significant share of US economic activity, to rapid trade policy changes and suggest the need for clear policy communication and targeted support mechanisms.
Citations
Atkin, David, Zoe Cullen, and Ebehi Iyoha. 2025. Navigating Choppy Waters: How US Trade Policy Uncertainty Affects Small Businesses. Harvard Business School Working Paper 25-048 (April). https://www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication%20Files/25-048_a6902d2e-47b7-4fb7-b558-88d387ea4bd2.pdf