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Authors:

  • Goodarz Danaei
Objectives: We aimed to evaluate the performance of the revised World Health Organization (WHO) models in predicting the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Iran, as part of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Study Design and Setting: We analyzed data from the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS), including 5162 participants (2241 men) aged 40–80 years without CVD at baseline (the third examination, 2006–2008), for the occurrence of CVD (myocardial infarction (MI), coronary heart disease (CHD) death, and stroke). We assessed the statistical performance of original and regionally recalibrated models, both laboratory- and non-laboratory-based, using discrimination (C-statistic) calibration (calibration plot and observed-to-expected[O:E] ratio) and clinical performance applying net benefit (NB), a measure of true positives (TP) penalized for a weight of false positives (FP), a decimal value representing the expected proportion of TP outcomes among total population.

Citations

Nomali M, Yaseri M, Nedjat S, Azizi F, Mansournia MA, Navid H, Danaei G et al. 2025. Performance of the revised World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk prediction models for the Middle East and North Africa: a validation study in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 182: 111736.