The states that possess nuclear weapons – and other states that rely on their security guarantees -- see them as essential to their security. At the same time, nuclear deterrence comes with the ever-present risk of devastating failure, posing an existential risk to much of human civilization. This course will explore a range of views (including those of different countries) on the role of nuclear deterrence in international affairs today and in the future, in the context of events including Russia’s war on Ukraine and nuclear saber-rattling, China’s rapid nuclear buildup, North Korea’s near-constant missile testing and nuclear threats, Iran’s expanding ability to produce nuclear weapons material should it ever choose to do so, increasing alignment of all four of those countries, an ongoing nuclear arms competition between India and Pakistan, and more. What capabilities and what evidence of commitment are necessary for deterrence to be credible and effective? What challenges to a state’s interests can nuclear weapons play a role in deterring? What steps might do the most to reduce the risk of nuclear conflict, ranging from strengthened deterrence through foreign policy actions to accords on nuclear restraint or risk reduction? There is a need for rethinking these questions as the nuclear world is becoming more multipolar, hostility between nuclear-armed states is at a fever pitch, U.S. actions and statements are leading allies (and adversaries) to question U.S. commitments to defend its allies, and new technologies from hypersonic missiles to cyberweapons and artificial intelligence are making both conventional and nuclear balances more complex and potentially more dangerous. This class will explore different concepts for managing nuclear balances and reducing their dangers; approaches to nuclear strategy and force posture; prospects for nuclear arms restraint; and ideas about what a world that no longer relied on nuclear deterrence might look like. The course will confront students with real-world and hypothetical policy dilemmas, training them in risk-informed thinking about managing these issues, through case studies, policy memos, and negotiating or crisis simulations. The course will equip students with concepts and tools for careers managing nuclear deterrence policies.
Also offered by the Government Department as 1736.