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The White House lawn on a sunny day.
Feature: Is DOGE Sure It Wants to Fire These People?

Juliette Kayyem examines the negative effects that Elon Musks’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) could have on the safety of everyday Americans.

River running through a densely populated area.
Feature: Private Benefits from Public Investment in Climate Resilience

Joseph Aldy finds that governmental construction of levees, which enhance resilience to flood risks amplified by climate change, increases home values by 3-4 percent.

Person sits on a bed holding a check.
Feature: Assessing Government Outreach to Bolster Benefits Take-Up

Elizabeth Linos finds that light-touch interventions significantly, consistently, and cost-effectively increase benefits take-up among low-income households, while higher-touch proactive outreach yields minimal additional take-up.

Black family happily sits on the grass in a park.
Feature: Excess Mortality Rate in U.S. Black Children Since 1950

Soroush Saghafian finds that 5 million excess deaths of Black Americans, including over 500,000 infants, could have been avoided over the past 70 years if their mortality rates were equal to those of White Americans.

Harvard Kennedy School faculty disseminate their research in working publications and papers that contribute to public knowledge and fuel policy innovation. This list features recent faculty publications, including journal articles, books, edited volumes, research papers, and public testimony.

Faculty Publications

Cost Pass-Through to Higher Ethanol Blends at the Pump: Evidence from Minnesota Gas Station Data

Li, Jing, and James H. Stock. "Cost Pass-Through to Higher Ethanol Blends at the Pump: Evidence from Minnesota Gas Station Data." Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 93 (January 2019): 1-19.

Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel

Eggertsson, Gauti B., Ragnar E. Juelsrud, Lawrence H. Summers, and Ella Getz Wold. "Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel." January 2019.

AI and the Economy

Furman, Jason, and Robert Seamans. "AI and the Economy." Innovation Policy and the Economy 19.1 (January 2019): 161-191.

Understanding Regional Export Growth in China

Dorn, David, Gordon Hanson, and Lei Li. "Understanding Regional Export Growth in China." World Trade Evolution: Growth, Productivity and Employment. Ed. Lili Yan Ing and Miaojie Yu. Routledge, 2019.

Independent Taxation, Horizontal Equity, and Return-Free Filing

Liebman, Jeffrey, and Daniel Ramsey. "Independent Taxation, Horizontal Equity, and Return-Free Filing." Tax Policy and the Economy 33.1 (January 2019): 109-130.

Efficient Warnings, Not “Wolf or Puppy” Warnings

Robinson, Lisa A., W. Kip Viscusi, and Richard J. Zeckhauser. "Efficient Warnings, Not “Wolf or Puppy” Warnings." The Future of Risk Management. Ed. Howard Kunreuther, Robert J. Meyer, and Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan. University of Pennsylvania Press, 2019.

Market Design Practices: Which Ones Are Best? [In My View]

Hogan, William W. "Market Design Practices: Which Ones Are Best? [In My View]." IEEE Power and Energy 17.1 (January/February 2019).

Realizing the Potential of PPPs to Advance Asia's Infrastructure Development

Deep, Akash, Jungwook Kim and Minsoo Lee, eds. Realizing the Potential of PPPs to Advance Asia's Infrastructure Development. Asian Development Bank, 2019.

Linking Heterogeneous Climate Policies (Consistent with the Paris Agreement)

Stavins, Robert N., M.A. Mehling, and G.E. Metcalf. "Linking Heterogeneous Climate Policies (Consistent with the Paris Agreement)." Environmental Law 8.4 (2019): 647-698.

George HW Bush Was Fiscally Responsible – Unlike Donald Trump

Frankel, Jeffrey A. "George HW Bush Was Fiscally Responsible – Unlike Donald Trump." The Guardian, December 11, 2018.

The Crisis Next Time: What We Should Have Learned from 2008

Reinhart, Carmen, and Vincent Reinhart. "The Crisis Next Time: What We Should Have Learned from 2008." Foreign Affairs 97.6 (November/December 2018): 84-97.

The Price of Biodiesel RINs and Economic Fundamentals

Irwin, Scott H., Kristen McCormack, and James H. Stock. "The Price of Biodiesel RINs and Economic Fundamentals." vlog Faculty Research Working Paper Series, December 2018.

The Emerging Russia-Asia Energy Nexus

Downs, Erica, James Henderson, Mikkal E. Herberg, Shoichi Itoh, Meghan O'Sullivan, Morena Skalamera, and Can Soylu. "The Emerging Russia-Asia Energy Nexus." The National Bureau of Asian Research, December 2018.

A Trade War is No Reason to Ease Monetary Policy

Frankel, Jeffrey A. "A Trade War is No Reason to Ease Monetary Policy." The Guardian, November 27, 2018.

Policy Evolution under the Clean Air Act

Schmalensee, Richard, and Robert N. Stavins. "Policy Evolution under the Clean Air Act." vlog Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP18-039, November 2018.

GHG Cap-and-Trade: Implications for Effective and Efficient Climate Policy in Oregon

Schatzki, Todd, and Robert N. Stavins. "GHG Cap-and-Trade: Implications for Effective and Efficient Climate Policy in Oregon." vlog Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP18-038, November 2018.

The conundrum of PPP road projects

Rajan, Thillai, Akash Deep, and Samhita Mangu. "The conundrum of PPP road projects." Mint. November 14, 2018.

Functional Structures of US State Governments

Kosack, Stephen, Michele Coscia, Evann Smith, Kim Albrecht, Albert-László Barabási, and Ricardo Hausmann. "Functional Structures of US State Governments." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 115.46 (November 2018): 11748-11753.

Stock Price Rewards to Climate Saints and Sinners: Evidence from the Trump Election

Ramelli, Stefano, Alexander F. Wagner, Richard J. Zeckhauser, and Alexandre Ziegler. "Stock Price Rewards to Climate Saints and Sinners: Evidence from the Trump Election." vlog Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP18-037, September 2018.

Multiperiod Matching

Kadam, Sangram V., and Maciej H. Kotowski. "Multiperiod Matching." International Economic Review 59.4 (November 2018): 1927-1947.

Time Horizons, Lattice Structures, and
Welfare in Multi-period Matching Markets

Kadam, Sangram V., and Maciej H. Kotowski. "Time Horizons, Lattice Structures, and Welfare in Multi-period Matching Markets." Games and Economic Behavior 112 (November 2018): 1-20.

Company Stock Price Reactions to the 2016 Election Shock: Trump, Taxes, and Trade

Wagner, Alexander F., Richard J. Zeckhauser, and Alexandre Ziegler. "Company Stock Price Reactions to the 2016 Election Shock: Trump, Taxes, and Trade." Journal of Financial Economics 130 (November 2018): 428-451.

The Unheard Nerds: How Economists Can Talk So Policymakers Will Listen

Dynan, Karen. "The Unheard Nerds: How Economists Can Talk So Policymakers Will Listen." Foreign Affairs. November/December 2018.

Alma-Ata at 40 Years: Reflections from the Lancet Commission on Investing in Health

Watkins, David A., Gavin Yamey, Marco Schäferhoff, Olusoji Adeyi, George Alleyne, Ala Alwan, Seth Berkley et al. "Alma-Ata at 40 Years: Reflections from the Lancet Commission on Investing in Health." The Lancet 392.10156 (October 2018): 1434-1460.

The New and Not Improved NAFTA

Frankel, Jeffrey A. "The New and Not Improved NAFTA." Project Syndicate, October 9, 2018.

Wielding Peer Effects in Online Production: Evidence from a Series of Field Experiments

Horton, John J., and Richard J. Zeckhauser. "Wielding Peer Effects in Online Production: Evidence from a Series of Field Experiments." October 2018.

HAR Inference: Recommendations for Practice

Lazarus, Eben, Daniel J. Lewis, James H. Stock, and Mark W. Watson. "HAR Inference: Recommendations for Practice." Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 36.4 (October 2018): 541-559.

Analytic Confidence and Political Decision Making: Theoretical Principles and Experimental Evidence from National Security Professionals

Friedman, Jeffrey A., and Richard Zeckhauser. "Analytic Confidence and Political Decision Making: Theoretical Principles and Experimental Evidence from National Security Professionals." Political Psychology 39.5 (October 2018): 1069-1087.

Raphael, Superstar, and His Extraordinary Prices

Nelson, Jonathan K., and Richard J. Zeckhauser. "Raphael, Superstar, and His Extraordinary Prices." Sources: Notes in the History of Art (Fall 2018): 15-23.

Trump's Currency Confusion Continues

Frankel, Jeffrey A. "Trump's Currency Confusion Continues." The Guardian, September 21, 2018.

Key Issues Facing California's GHG Cap-and-Trade System for 2021-2030

Schatzki, Todd, and Robert N. Stavins. "Key Issues Facing California's GHG Cap-and-Trade System for 2021-2030." vlog Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP18-025, July 2018.

Production and Welfare: Progress in Economic Measurement

Jorgenson, Dale W. "Production and Welfare: Progress in Economic Measurement." Journal of Economic Literature 56.3 (September 2018): 867-919.

Work as a Masculinity Contest

Berdahl, Jennifer L., Marianne Cooper, Peter Glick, Robert W. Livingston, and Joan C. Williams. "Work as a Masculinity Contest." Journal of Social Issues 74.3 (September 2018): 422-448.

The Fiscal Opacity Cycle: How America Hid the Costs of the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

Bilmes, Linda J. "The Fiscal Opacity Cycle: How America Hid the Costs of the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan." Toward A Just Society: Joseph Stiglitz and Twenty-First Century Economics. Ed. Martin Guzman. Columbia University Press, 2018, 457-478.

US will Lack Fiscal Space to Respond when Next Recession Comes

Frankel, Jeffrey A. "US will Lack Fiscal Space to Respond when Next Recession Comes." The Guardian, August 28, 2018.

Aging, Output Per Capita and Secular Stagnation

Eggertsson, Gauti B., Manuel Lancastre, and Lawrence H. Summers. "Aging, Output Per Capita and Secular Stagnation." National Bureau of Economic Research, August 2018.

GDP as a Measure of Economic Well-Being

Dynan, Karen, and Louise Sheiner. "GDP as a Measure of Economic Well-Being." Hutchins Center, Brookings Institution, August 2018.

Shops and the City: Evidence on Local Externalities and Local Government Policy from Big-Box Bankruptcies

Shoag, Daniel, and Stan Veuger. "Shops and the City: Evidence on Local Externalities and Local Government Policy from Big-Box Bankruptcies." Review of Economics and Statistics 100.3 (July 2018): 440-453.

Potential vs. Realized Savings under Automatic Enrollment

Beshears, John, James J. Choi, David Laibson, and Brigitte C. Madrian. "Potential vs. Realized Savings under Automatic Enrollment." TIAA Institute, July 2018.

Behavioral Household Finance

Beshears, John, James J. Choi, David Laibson, and Brigitte C. Madrian. "Behavioral Household Finance." Handbook of Behavioral Economics 1 177-276.

Back Channel Negotiations and Dangerous Waiting

Mukharji, Aroop, and Richard J. Zeckhauser. "Back Channel Negotiations and Dangerous Waiting." Negotiation Journal (July 2018): 297-307.

On Market-Based Approaches to the Valuation of Capital

Sarin, Natasha, and Lawrence H. Summers. "On Market-Based Approaches to the Valuation of Capital." June 2018.

The Republicans' Protectionist Pedigree

Frankel, Jeffrey A. "The Republicans' Protectionist Pedigree." Project Syndicate, June 13, 2018.

Testimony to Hearing on ‘Market Concentration’

Furman, Jason. "Testimony to Hearing on ‘Market Concentration’." Testimony before the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, June 7, 2018.

Secular Stagnation and Macroeconomic Policy

Summers, Lawrence H. "Secular Stagnation and Macroeconomic Policy." IMF Economic Review 66.2 (June 2018): 226–250.

A Firm-Level Perspective on the Role of Rents in the Rise in Inequality

Furman, Jason, and Peter Orszag. "A Firm-Level Perspective on the Role of Rents in the Rise in Inequality." Toward a Just Society: Joseph Stiglitz and Twenty-First Century Economics. Ed. Martin Guzman. Columbia University Press, 2018.

Slower Productivity and Higher Inequality: Are They Related?

Furman, Jason, and Peter Orszag. "Slower Productivity and Higher Inequality: Are They Related?" June 2018.

The Value of Precision in Probability Assessment: Evidence from a Large-Scale Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament

Friedman, Jeffrey A., Joshua D. Baker, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip E. Tetlock, and Richard Zeckhauser. "The Value of Precision in Probability Assessment: Evidence from a Large-Scale Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament." International Studies Quarterly 62 (June 2018): 410-422.

What Does Trump Want in his On Again, Off Again China Trade War?

Frankel, Jeffrey A. "What Does Trump Want in his On Again, Off Again China Trade War?" The Hill, May 30, 2018.

An Economic Platform for US Democrats

Frankel, Jeffrey A. "An Economic Platform for US Democrats." Project Syndicate, May 24, 2018.