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The White House lawn on a sunny day.
Feature: Is DOGE Sure It Wants to Fire These People?

Juliette Kayyem examines the negative effects that Elon Musks’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) could have on the safety of everyday Americans.

River running through a densely populated area.
Feature: Private Benefits from Public Investment in Climate Resilience

Joseph Aldy finds that governmental construction of levees, which enhance resilience to flood risks amplified by climate change, increases home values by 3-4 percent.

Person sits on a bed holding a check.
Feature: Assessing Government Outreach to Bolster Benefits Take-Up

Elizabeth Linos finds that light-touch interventions significantly, consistently, and cost-effectively increase benefits take-up among low-income households, while higher-touch proactive outreach yields minimal additional take-up.

Black family happily sits on the grass in a park.
Feature: Excess Mortality Rate in U.S. Black Children Since 1950

Soroush Saghafian finds that 5 million excess deaths of Black Americans, including over 500,000 infants, could have been avoided over the past 70 years if their mortality rates were equal to those of White Americans.

Harvard Kennedy School faculty disseminate their research in working publications and papers that contribute to public knowledge and fuel policy innovation. This list features recent faculty publications, including journal articles, books, edited volumes, research papers, and public testimony.

Faculty Publications

To Batch or Not to Batch: Test-Ordering Variability in the Emergency Department and the Impact on Care Delivery

Jameson, Jacob, Soroush Saghafian, Robert S. Huckman, and Nicole Hodgson. "To Batch or Not to Batch: Test-Ordering Variability in the Emergency Department and the Impact on Care Delivery." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP23-032, November 2023.

Investigator Racial Diversity and Clinical Trial Participation

Alsan, Marcella, Romaine A. Campbell, Lukas Leister, and Ayotomiwa Ojo. "Investigator Racial Diversity and Clinical Trial Participation." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP23-029, October 2023.

Productivity Variation and Input Misallocation: Evidence from Hospitals

Chandra, Amitabh, Carrie H. Colla, and Jonathan S. Skinner. "Productivity Variation and Input Misallocation: Evidence from Hospitals." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP23-024, August 2023.

Vertical Patient Streaming in Emergency Departments

Feizi, Arshya, Agni Orfanoudaki, Soroush Saghafian, and Nicole Hodgson. "Vertical Patient Streaming in Emergency Departments." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP23-014, May 2023.

The Health of Democracies During the Pandemic: Results from a Randomized Survey Experiment

Alsan, Marcella, Luca Braghieri, Sarah Eichmeyer, Minjeong Joyce Kim, Stefanie Stantcheva, and David Y. Yang. "The Health of Democracies During the Pandemic: Results from a Randomized Survey Experiment." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP23-004, January 2023.

Health Care Spending Growth Has Slowed: Will the Bend in the Curve Continue?

Smith, Sheila D., Joseph P. Newhouse, and Gigi A. Cuckler. "Health Care Spending Growth Has Slowed: Will the Bend in the Curve Continue?" ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP23-001, January 2023.

Reducing Ordeals through Automatic Enrollment: Evidence from a Health Insurance Exchange

Shepard, Mark and Myles Wagner. "Reducing Ordeals through Automatic Enrollment: Evidence from a Health Insurance Exchange." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP23-002, January 2023.

Ambiguous Dynamic Treatment Regimes:
A Reinforcement Learning Approach

Saghafian, Soroush. "Ambiguous Dynamic Treatment Regimes: A Reinforcement Learning Approach." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP21-034, December 2022.

Understanding the Opioid Epidemic: Human-Based Versus Algorithmic-Based Perceptions, Treatments, and Guidelines

Boloori, Alireza, Soroush Saghafian, and Stephen J. Traub. "Understanding the Opioid Epidemic: Human-Based Versus Algorithmic-Based Perceptions, Treatments, and Guidelines." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP22-026, December 2022.

Algorithm, Human, or the Centaur: How to Enhance Clinical Care?

Orfanoudaki, Agni, Soroush Saghafian, Karen Song, Harini A. Chakkera, and Curtiss B. Cook. "Algorithm, Human, or the Centaur: How to Enhance Clinical Care?" ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP22-027, December 2022.

Regulatory Incentives for Innovation:
The FDA's Breakthrough Therapy
Designation

Chandra, Amitabh, Jennifer Kao, Kathleen L. Miller and Ariel D. Stern. "Regulatory Incentives for Innovation: The FDA's Breakthrough Therapy Designation." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP22-024, December 2022.

Adverse Selection and Network Design Under Regulated Plan Prices: Evidence from Medicaid

Kreider, Amanda R., Timothy J. Layton, Mark Shepard and Jacob Wallace. "Adverse Selection and Network Design Under Regulated Plan Prices: Evidence from Medicaid." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP22-025, December 2022.

Who Should See the Patient? On Deviations from Preferred Patient-Provider Assignments in Hospitals

Atkinson, Mariam K., and Soroush Saghafian. "Who Should See the Patient? On Deviations from Preferred Patient-Provider Assignments in Hospitals." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP19-037, November 2022.

The Impact of Vertical Integration on Physician Behavior and Healthcare Delivery: Evidence from Gastroenterology Practices

Saghafian, Soroush, Linda D. Song, Joseph P. Newhouse, Mary Beth Landrum, and John Hsu. "The Impact of Vertical Integration on Physician Behavior and Healthcare Delivery: Evidence from Gastroenterology Practices." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP20-031, November 2022.

The Impact of Large-Scale Social Media Advertising Campaigns on COVID-19 Vaccination: Evidence from Two Randomized Controlled Trials

Ho, Lisa Y., Emily Breza, Marcella Alsan, Abhijit Banerjee, Arun G. Chandrasekhar, Fatima Cody Stanford, Renato Fior, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Kelly Holland, Emily Hoppe, Louis-Maël Jean, Lucy Ogbu-Nwobodo, Benjamin A. Olken, Carlos Torres, Pierre-Luc Vautrey, Erica Warner, and Esther Duflo. "The Impact of Large-Scale Social Media Advertising Campaigns on COVID-19 Vaccination: Evidence from Two Randomized Controlled Trials." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP22-021, November 2022.

Representation and Extrapolation: Evidence from Clinical Trials

Alsan, Marcella, Maya Durvasula, Harsh Gupta, Joshua Schwartzstein and Heidi L. Williams. "Representation and Extrapolation: Evidence from Clinical Trials." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP22-019, October 2022.

Dynamic Assignment of Patients to Primary and Secondary Inpatient Units: Is Patience a Virtue?

Saghafian, Soroush, Derya Kilinc, and Stephen J. Traub. "Dynamic Assignment of Patients to Primary and Secondary Inpatient Units: Is Patience a Virtue?" ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP17-010, August 2022.

Building mass support for global pandemic recovery efforts in the United States

Nair, Gautam, and Kyle Peyton. "Building mass support for global pandemic recovery efforts in the United States." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP22-002, February 2022.

A Simple Model of Social Distancing and Vaccination

Avery, Christopher. "A Simple Model of Social Distancing and Vaccination." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP21-030, November 2021.

The Virus, Vaccination, and Voting

Frankel, Jeffrey A., and Randy Kotti. "The Virus, Vaccination, and Voting." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP21-021, August 2021.

Unobserved Heterogeneity, State Dependence, and Health Plan Choices

Pakes, Ariel, Jack Porter, Mark Shepard, and Sophie Calder-Wang. "Unobserved Heterogeneity, State Dependence, and Health Plan Choices." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP21-020, July 2021.

The Great Unequalizer: Initial Health Effects of COVID-19 in the United States

Alsan, Marcella, Amitabh Chandra, and Kosali I. Simon. "The Great Unequalizer: Initial Health Effects of COVID-19 in the United States." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP21-019, July 2021.

Do Independent and Parallel Processing Physicians Influence Each Other's Performance? Evidence from the Emergency Department

Saghafian, Soroush, Raha Imanirad, and Stephen J. Traub. "Do Independent and Parallel Processing Physicians Influence Each Other's Performance? Evidence from the Emergency Department." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP19-018, June 2021.

Can Automatic Retention Improve Health Insurance Market Outcomes?

McIntyre, Adrianna, Mark Shepard, and Myles Wagner. "Can Automatic Retention Improve Health Insurance Market Outcomes?" ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP21-012, April 2021.

The Spillover Effects of Hospital Closures on the Efficiency and Quality of Other Hospitals

Song, Lina, and Soroush Saghafian. "The Spillover Effects of Hospital Closures on the Efficiency and Quality of Other Hospitals." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP19-006, April 2021.

The Health Costs of Cost-Sharing

Chandra, Amitabh, Evan Flack, and Ziad Obermeyer. "The Health Costs of Cost-Sharing." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP21-005, March 2021.

Estimating the Costs and Benefits of Supported Quarantine and Isolation in Massachusetts: The Missing Link in Covid-19 Response

Bourdeaux, Margaret, Jessica Kaushal, Linda J. Bilmes, Annmarie Sasdi, Megan Mishra, and Anne Hoyt. "Estimating the Costs and Benefits of Supported Quarantine and Isolation in Massachusetts: The Missing Link in Covid-19 Response." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP21-003, February 2021.

Health and Economic Impacts of Lockdown Policies in the Early Stage of COVID-19 in the U.S.

Boloori, Alireza, and Soroush Saghafian. "Health and Economic Impacts of Lockdown Policies in the Early Stage of COVID-19 in the U.S." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP20-027, August 2020.

How Are Small Businesses Adjusting to COVID-19? Early Evidence from a Survey

Bartik, Alexander W., Marianne Bertrand, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca, and Christopher T. Stanton. "How Are Small Businesses Adjusting to COVID-19? Early Evidence from a Survey." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP20-012, May 2020.

COVID-19: What Intervention Policies Are Most Effective? A Brief Report Using Data from Government of Bahrain

Boloori, Alireza, and Soroush Saghafian. "COVID-19: What Intervention Policies Are Most Effective? A Brief Report Using Data from Government of Bahrain." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP20-011, May 2020.

Demographic Determinants of Testing Incidence and COVID-19 Infections in New York City Neighborhoods

Borjas, George. "Demographic Determinants of Testing Incidence and COVID-19 Infections in New York City Neighborhoods." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP20-008, April 2020.

Does One Medicare Fit All? The Economics of Uniform Health Insurance Benefits

Shepard, Mark, Katherine Baicker, and Jonathan Skinner. "Does One Medicare Fit All? The Economics of Uniform Health Insurance Benefits." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP19-036, November 2019.

The Two Margin Problem in Insurance Markets

Shepard, Mark, Michael Geruso, Timothy J. Layton, and Grace McCormack. "The Two Margin Problem in Insurance Markets." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP19-035, November 2019.

Strategic Sorting: The Role of Ordeals in Health Care

Zeckhauser, Richard. "Strategic Sorting: The Role of Ordeals in Health Care." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP19-023, June 2019.

Joint Patient Selection and Scheduling under No-Shows: Theory and Application in Proton Therapy

Saghafian, Soroush, Nikolaos Trichakis, Ruihao Zhu, and Helen A. Shih. "Joint Patient Selection and Scheduling under No-Shows: Theory and Application in Proton Therapy." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP19-019, May 2019.

Who is an Efficient and Effective Physician? Evidence from Emergence Medicine

Saghafian, Soroush, Raha Imanirad, and Stephen J. Traub. "Who is an Efficient and Effective Physician? Evidence from Emergence Medicine." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP18-029, September 2018.

Enhancing Public Health Outcomes in Developing Countries: From Good Policies and Best Practices to Better Implementation

Woolcock, Michael. "Enhancing Public Health Outcomes in Developing Countries: From Good Policies and Best Practices to Better Implementation." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP18-016, February 2018.

Data-Driven Percentile Optimization for Multi-Class Queueing Systems with Model Ambiguity: Theory and Application

Bren, Austin, and Soroush Saghafian. "Data-Driven Percentile Optimization for Multi-Class Queueing Systems with Model Ambiguity: Theory and Application." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP18-008, February 2018.

Sunlight and Protection Against Influenza

Slusky, David J. G., and Richard J. Zeckhauser. "Sunlight and Protection Against Influenza." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP18-007, February 2018.

Excess Prices for Drugs in Medicare: Diagnosis and Prescription

Frank, Richard G., and Richard J. Zeckhauser. "Excess Prices for Drugs in Medicare: Diagnosis and Prescription." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP18-005, January 2018.

Can Public Reporting Cure Healthcare? The Role of Quality Transparency in Improving Patient-Provider Alignment

Saghafian, Soroush, and Wallace J. Hopp. "Can Public Reporting Cure Healthcare? The Role of Quality Transparency in Improving Patient-Provider Alignment." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP17-044, November 2017.

Data-Driven Management of Post-Transplant Medications: An APOMDP Approach

Boloori, Alireza, Soroush Saghafian, Harini A. A. Chakkera, and Curtiss B. Cook. "Data-Driven Management of Post-Transplant Medications: An APOMDP Approach." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP17-036, August 2017.

Workload Management in Telemedical Physician Triage and Other Knowledge-Based Service Systems

Saghafian, Soroush, Wallace J. Hopp, Seyed M. R. Iravani, Yao Cheng, and Daniel Diermeier. "Workload Management in Telemedical Physician Triage and Other Knowledge-Based Service Systems." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP17-035, August 2017.

The Evolution of Health Insurer Costs in Massachusetts, 2010-12

Ho, Kate, Ariel Pakes, and Mark Shepard. "The Evolution of Health Insurer Costs in Massachusetts, 2010-12." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP17-007, November 2016, Revised January 2017.

Price-Linked Subsidies and Health Insurance Markups

Jaffe, Sonia, and Mark Shepard. "Price-Linked Subsidies and Health Insurance Markups." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP17-002, January 24, 2017.

Enrollee Choices After Their Health Plans Are Terminated: Default Effects Versus Persistent Preferences

Sinaiko, Anna, and Richard Zeckhauser. "Enrollee Choices After Their Health Plans Are Terminated: Default Effects Versus Persistent Preferences." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP16-055, December 2016.

What Determines End-of-Life
Assets? A Retrospective View

Poterba, James, Steven Venti, and David A. Wise. "What Determines End-of-Life Assets? A Retrospective View." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP15-067, November 2015.

What Does a Deductible Do?
The Impact of Cost-Sharing on
Health Care Prices, Quantities,
and Spending Dynamics

Brot-Goldberg, Zarek C., Amitabh Chandra, Benjamin R. Handel, and Jonathan T. Kolstad. "What Does a Deductible Do? The Impact of Cost-Sharing on Health Care Prices, Quantities, and Spending Dynamics." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP15-060, October 2015.

Healthcare Exceptionalism?
Performance and Allocation in
the U.S. Healthcare Sector

Chandra, Amitabh, Amy Finkelstein, Adam Sacarny, and Chad Syverson. "Healthcare Exceptionalism? Performance and Allocation in the U.S. Healthcare Sector." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP15-058, October 2015.

Second Trimester Sunlight and Asthma: Evidence from Two Independent Studies

Wernerfelt, Nils, David Slusky, and Richard Zeckhauser. "Second Trimester Sunlight and Asthma: Evidence from Two Independent Studies." ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP14-050, October 2014.