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The White House lawn on a sunny day.
Feature: Is DOGE Sure It Wants to Fire These People?

Juliette Kayyem examines the negative effects that Elon Musks’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) could have on the safety of everyday Americans.

River running through a densely populated area.
Feature: Private Benefits from Public Investment in Climate Resilience

Joseph Aldy finds that governmental construction of levees, which enhance resilience to flood risks amplified by climate change, increases home values by 3-4 percent.

Person sits on a bed holding a check.
Feature: Assessing Government Outreach to Bolster Benefits Take-Up

Elizabeth Linos finds that light-touch interventions significantly, consistently, and cost-effectively increase benefits take-up among low-income households, while higher-touch proactive outreach yields minimal additional take-up.

Black family happily sits on the grass in a park.
Feature: Excess Mortality Rate in U.S. Black Children Since 1950

Soroush Saghafian finds that 5 million excess deaths of Black Americans, including over 500,000 infants, could have been avoided over the past 70 years if their mortality rates were equal to those of White Americans.

Harvard Kennedy School faculty disseminate their research in working publications and papers that contribute to public knowledge and fuel policy innovation. This list features recent faculty publications, including journal articles, books, edited volumes, research papers, and public testimony.

Faculty Publications

Measuring Human Leadership Skills with AI Agents

Weidmann, Ben, Yixian Xu, and David J. Deming. "Measuring Human Leadership Skills with AI Agents." NBER Working Paper Series, April 2025.

Measuring Human Leadership Skills with AI Agents

Weidmann, Ben, Yixian Xu, and David Deming. "Measuring Human Leadership Skills with AI Agents." NBER Working Paper Series, April 2025.

Recovering from COVID

Stock, James H., and Mark W. Watson. "Recovering from COVID." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, March 26, 2025.

Private Benefits from Public Investment in Climate Adaptation and Resilience

Bradt, Jacob T. and Joseph E. Aldy. "Private Benefits from Public Investment in Climate Adaptation and Resilience." March 24, 2025.

Sanctions on Venezuela are not Driving Migration to the US Southwest Border: An Empirical Assessment

Bahar, Dany, and Ricardo Hausmann. "Sanctions on Venezuela are not Driving Migration to the US Southwest Border: An Empirical Assessment." Center for Global Development Note, March 24, 2025.

Ten Consequential and Actionable ‘Social’ Contributions to the Theory, Practice, and Evaluation of Development

Rao, Vijayendra, and Michael Woolcock. "Ten Consequential and Actionable ‘Social’ Contributions to the Theory, Practice, and Evaluation of Development." World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series, March 19, 2025.

Methane Abatement Costs in the Oil and Gas Industry: Survey and Synthesis

Aldy, Joseph E., Forest L. Reinhardt, and Robert N. Stavins. "Methane Abatement Costs in the Oil and Gas Industry: Survey and Synthesis." NBER Working Paper Series, March 2025.

Where Have All the Good Jobs Gone? Changes in the Geography of Work in the US, 1980-2021

Hanson, Gordon, and Enrico Moretti. "Where Have All the Good Jobs Gone? Changes in the Geography of Work in the US, 1980-2021." NBER Working Paper Series, March 2025.

Expert Patients’ Use of Avoidable Health Care

Chandra, Amitabh, Pragya Kakani, and Simone Matecna. "Expert Patients’ Use of Avoidable Health Care." NBER Working Paper Series, March 2025.

Dynamic Persuasion: Decay and Accumulation of Partisan Media Persuasion

Baum, Matthew A., Adam J. Berinsky, Justin de Benedictis-Kessner, Joohye Jeong, Zachary Markovich, and Teppei Yamamoto. "Dynamic Persuasion: Decay and Accumulation of Partisan Media Persuasion." March 2025.

The Inverted U-Shaped Relationship between Female Entrepreneurship and Economic Development

Ashraf, Nava, Alexia Delfino, Edward L. Glaeser, and Irene Solmone. "The Inverted U-Shaped Relationship between Female Entrepreneurship and Economic Development." NBER Working Paper Series, March 2025.

De facto Openness to Immigration

Nedelkoska, Ljubica, Diego Martin, Alexia Lochmann, Ricardo Hausmann, Dany Bahar, and Muhammed A. Yildirim. "De facto Openness to Immigration." February 2025.

Learning not cheating: AI assistance can enhance rather than hinder skill development

Lira, Benjamin, Todd Rogers, Daniel G. Goldstein, Lyle Ungar, and Angela L. Duckworth. "Learning not cheating: AI assistance can enhance rather than hinder skill development." 22 February 2025.

Building Capacity to Adapt Development Pathways to Protect Human Well-being in the Face of Shocks: Lessons from scholarship and practice

Harley, Alicia G., and William C. Clark. "Building Capacity to Adapt Development Pathways to Protect Human Well-being in the Face of Shocks: Lessons from scholarship and practice." Sustainability Science Program Working Paper Series, February 16, 2025.

Displaced Learners: Early Integration of Ukrainian Refugee Students into Italy’s Schools

Carlana, Michela, Pauline Castaing, Mauro Testaverde, and Marco Tiberti. "Displaced Learners: Early Integration of Ukrainian Refugee Students into Italy’s Schools." World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series, February 2025.

The U.S. Place-Based Policy Supply Chain

Hanson, Gordon H., Dani Rodrik, and Rohan Sandhu. "The U.S. Place-Based Policy Supply Chain." NBER Working Paper Series, February 2025.

How AI Can Support Democracy Movements: Summary Report of a Research and Practice Workshop

Chenowth, Erica. "How AI Can Support Democracy Movements: Summary Report of a Research and Practice Workshop." Ash Center Occasional Paper Series, February 2025.

Vanguard: Black Veterans and Civil Rights after World War I

Ang, Desmond and Sahil Chinoy. "Vanguard: Black Veterans and Civil Rights after World War I." NBER Working Paper Series, February 2025.

Building Capacity to Measure Sustainability: Lessons from scholarship and practice

Harley, Alicia G., and William C. Clark. "Building Capacity to Measure Sustainability: Lessons from scholarship and practice." Sustainability Science Program Working Paper Series, January 29, 2025.

Community Targeting at Scale

Sumarto, Sudarno, Elan Satriawan, Benjamin A. Olken, Abhijit Banerjee, Achmad Tohari, Vivi Alatas, and Rema Hanna. "Community Targeting at Scale." NBER Working Paper Series, January 2025.

The Hidden Health Care Crisis Behind Bars: A Randomized Trial to Accredit U.S. Jails

Alsan, Marcella, and Crystal Yang. "The Hidden Health Care Crisis Behind Bars: A Randomized Trial to Accredit U.S. Jails." NBER Working Paper Series, January 2025.

Mean Reversion in Randomized Controlled Trials: Implications for Program Targeting and Heterogeneous Treatment Effects

Alsan, Marcella, John Cawley, Joseph J. Doyle Jr., and Nicholas Skelley. "Mean Reversion in Randomized Controlled Trials: Implications for Program Targeting and Heterogeneous Treatment Effects." NBER Working Paper Series, January 2025.

Second-Best Amendment: Market Power and Tax Design in the Firearms Industry

Armona, Luis, and Adam M. Rosenberg. "Second-Best Amendment: Market Power and Tax Design in the Firearms Industry." December 13, 2024.

Rebuilding Kharkiv: Economic Strategy

Glaeser, Edward, and Ian Goldin. "Rebuilding Kharkiv: Economic Strategy." United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, December 2, 2024.

Fiscal policy and the pandemic-era surge in US inflation: Lessons for the future

Dynan, Karen, and Douglas Elmendorf. "Fiscal policy and the pandemic-era surge in US inflation: Lessons for the future." Understanding the COVID Era Inflation, Peterson Institute for International Economics, December 2024.

Ideological Bias in Estimates of the Impact of Immigration

Borjas, George J., and Nate Breznau. "Ideological Bias in Estimates of the Impact of Immigration." NBER Working Paper Series, December 2024.

Supporting Postsecondary Readiness in Rural Districts: Experimental Evidence from a Rural Research Network

Swanson, Elise, Jennifer Ash, Sativa Thompson, Lisa Sanbonmatsu, Christopher Avery, Douglas O. Staiger, and Thomas J. Kane. "Supporting Postsecondary Readiness in Rural Districts: Experimental Evidence from a Rural Research Network." Center for Education Policy Research and National Center for Rural Education Research Networks, December 2024.

The Complementarity Between Cities and State Capacity

Glaeser, Edward L. "The Complementarity Between Cities and State Capacity." NBER Working Paper Series, December 2024.

Places versus People: The Ins and Outs of Labor Market Adjustment to Globalization

Autor, David, David Dorn, Gordon Hanson, Maggie R. Jones, and Bradley Setzler. "Places versus People: The Ins and Outs of Labor Market Adjustment to Globalization." Center for Economic Studies (CES) Working Paper Series, December 2024.

Why Doesn’t The United States Have National Health Insurance? The Role Of The American Medical Association

Alsan, Marcella, and Yousra Neberai. "Why Doesn’t The United States Have National Health Insurance? The Role Of The American Medical Association." 11/28/2024.

Publication: Reconciling Multi-Level Rights-Based Commitments in Development: Assessing the Legal and Administrative Imperatives of Responding to Education, Health Care, and Environment Protection Cha

Narh, Bernice Nuerkey, and Woolcock, Michael. "Publication: Reconciling Multi-Level Rights-Based Commitments in Development: Assessing the Legal and Administrative Imperatives of Responding to Education, Health Care, and Environment Protection Challenges." World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series, 11/22/2024.

Shifting Patterns of Social Interaction: Exploring the Social Life of Urban Spaces Through A.I.

Salazar-Miranda, Arianna, Zhuangyuan Fan, Michael B. Baick, Keith N. Hampton, Fabio Duarte, Becky P.Y. Loo, Edward L. Glaeser, and Carlo Ratti. "Shifting Patterns of Social Interaction: Exploring the Social Life of Urban Spaces Through A.I." NBER Working Paper Series, November 2024.

Human Rights Organizations and Shaming Tactics: Using Anti-Racist Cues to Hone the Messaging

Buzas, Zoltan, and Lotem Bassan-Nygate. "Human Rights Organizations and Shaming Tactics: Using Anti-Racist Cues to Hone the Messaging." Keough School Policy Brief Series, 2024.

AI and the Transformation of Accountability and Discretion in Urban Governance

Goldsmith, Stephen and Juncheng "Tony" Yang. "AI and the Transformation of Accountability and Discretion in Urban Governance." Data-Smart City Solutions at the Bloomberg Center for Cities at Harvard University, October 2024.

Willingness-To-Pay vs Administrative Hurdles: Understanding Barriers to Social Insurance Enrollment in Thailand

Olken, Benjamin A., Rema Hanna, Phitawat Poonpolkul, and Nada Wasi. "Willingness-To-Pay vs Administrative Hurdles: Understanding Barriers to Social Insurance Enrollment in Thailand." Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research Discussion Paper Series, October 2024.

Self-Government, Taxation, and Tribal Development: The Critical Role of American Indian Nation Business Enterprises

Kalt, Joseph P. "Self-Government, Taxation, and Tribal Development: The Critical Role of American Indian Nation Business Enterprises." Policy Briefs for Tribal, Federal & State Governments, Harvard Kennedy School Project on Indigenous Governance & Development, October 7, 2024.

The ABC’s of Who Benefits from Working with AI: Ability, Beliefs, and Calibration

Caplin, Andrew, David J. Deming, Shangwen Li, Daniel J. Martin, Philip Marx, Ben Weidmann, and Kadachi Jiada Ye. "The ABC’s of Who Benefits from Working with AI: Ability, Beliefs, and Calibration." NBER Working Paper Series, October 2024.

International Lending in War and Peace

Horn, Sebastian, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Chrisoph Trebesch. "International Lending in War and Peace." October 2024.

Is the United States undergoing a manufacturing renaissance that will boost the middle class?

Lawrence, Robert Z. "Is the United States undergoing a manufacturing renaissance that will boost the middle class?" PIEE Policy Brief Series, October 2024.

Pan-Arctic Methane: Current Monitoring Capabilities, Approaches for Improvement, and Implications for Global Mitigation Targets

Ackermann, Mark, Clare Amann, ...John Holdren et al. "Pan-Arctic Methane: Current Monitoring Capabilities, Approaches for Improvement, and Implications for Global Mitigation Targets." Wilson Center Polar Institute, October 2024.

How Wyoming’s Exodus of Young Adults Holds Back Economic Diversification

Protzer, Eric, Thao-Nguyên Bùi, Tim Freeman, Ricardo Hausmann, Sophia Henn, Farah Kaddah, Lucas Lamby, Tim O’Brien, Alejandro Rueda-Sanz, and Ricardo Villasmil. "How Wyoming’s Exodus of Young Adults Holds Back Economic Diversification." Growth Lab Working Paper Series, October 2024.

Dynamic scoring: A progress report on why, when, and how

Elmendorf, Douglas, Glenn Hubbard, and Heidi Williams. "Dynamic scoring: A progress report on why, when, and how." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, September 26-27, 2024.

Skills and Human Capital in the Labor Market

Deming, David, and Mikko I. Silliman. "Skills and Human Capital in the Labor Market." NBER Working Paper Series, September 2024.

The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI

Bick, Alexander, Adam Blandin, and David J. Deming. "The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI." NBER Working Paper Series, September 2024.

Inclusive Teaching: Spotting Social Isolation in the Classroom

Alan, Sule, Michela Carlana, and Marinella Leone. "Inclusive Teaching: Spotting Social Isolation in the Classroom." NBER Working Paper Series, September 2024.

Carbon Copy: US Public Opinion on the Diffusion of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms

Ingles, Tayla, Rochelle Sun, and Dustin Tingley. "Carbon Copy: US Public Opinion on the Diffusion of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms." September 1, 2024.

Global Trends in Innovation Patterns: A Complexity Approach

Chacua, Christian, Shreyas Gadgin Matha, Matte Hartog, Ricardo Hausmann, and Muhammed A. Yildirim. "Global Trends in Innovation Patterns: A Complexity Approach." Growth Lab Working Paper Series, September 2024.

Innovation Policies Under Economic Complexity

Chacua, Christian, Shreyas Gadgin Matha, Matte Hartog, Ricardo Hausmann, and Muhammed A. Yildirim. "Innovation Policies Under Economic Complexity." Growth Lab Working Paper Series, September 2024.

How will advanced AI systems impact democracy?

Summerfield, Christopher, ... Mathias Risse, et al. "How will advanced AI systems impact democracy?" 27 August 2024.

A Learning Agenda for Community-Driven Development: Responding to Complex Contextual, Evaluation, and Inference Challenges

Barron, Patrick John, Patricia Maria Fernendes, Stephen Joseph Winkler, and Michael Woolcock. "A Learning Agenda for Community-Driven Development: Responding to Complex Contextual, Evaluation, and Inference Challenges." World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 08/27/2024.