National security is one of many fields where experts make vague probability assessments when evaluating high-stakes decisions. This…
National security is one of many fields where public officials offer imprecise probability assessments when evaluating high-stakes…
After piling up trillions of dollars of war debt during the last decade, America seemed to be on the brink of a new era -- ready to shut…
This article addresses the challenge of managing uncertainty when producing estimative intelligence. Much of the theory and practice of…
The United States had never lost a war—that is, until 1975, when it was forced to flee Saigon in humiliation after losing to what Lyndon…
In just about three months, 196 active-duty and retired officers are scheduled to go on trial in Turkey, charged with plotting in 2003 to…
For the last three years Turkey has been gripped by an extraordinary series of legal proceedings revolving around an alleged conspiracy to…
On Feb. 22, Cetin Dogan, a retired four-star Turkish Army general, was detained and subsequently imprisoned by Turkish prosecutors, accused…