We investigate whether leading indicators can help explain the cross-country incidence of the 2008–09 financial crisis. Rather than looking…
How should we evaluate the forecasting power of models? What are appropriate loss functions for major market participants? Is the exchange…
Any solution to the Eurozone crisis must meet two objectives. One is short run and the other is long run. Unfortunately they tend to…
Consider the following scenario. After a victory by the left-wing Syriza party, Greece’s new government announces that it wants to…
The NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics brings together leading American and European economists to discuss a broad range of…
During the five years from 2003 to 2007, global perceptions of risk were unusually low, as reflected in the market pricing of sovereign…
In the past, industrial countries have tended to pursue countercyclical or, at worst, acyclical fiscal policy. In sharp contrast, emerging…
The large economies have each, in sequence, offered “models” that once seemed attractive to others but that eventually gave way to…
Why do many countries find it hard to control their budgets? Concern about budget deficits has become a burning political issue in the…
Developing countries traditionally experience pass-through of exchange rate changes that is greater and more rapid than high-income…