National security is one of many fields where experts make vague probability assessments when evaluating high-stakes decisions. This…
How do armed groups use violence to create social ties? What are the conditions under which such violence takes place? In this article, I…
This analysis argues that the period of easy reforms in China has ended, and
the time of difficult reforms that touch core political…
People from Los Angeles and San Francisco are calling me and asking: “Should we be getting our families out of the city? Are we about to be…
The latest round of congressional sanctions against Russia garnered much attention for the message they sent to President Donald Trump: We…
The president has a long to-do list, starting with slowing down and changing his tone. He should emulate Churchill and Reagan, not Kim Jung…
As a consequence of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the US Homeland Security Act of 2002 mandated the creation of the National…
As a consequence of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the US Homeland Security Act of 2002 mandated the creation of the National…
The article presents a historical review of the evolving role of scientific expertise in public affairs in the U.S. It discusses a…
This Russian campaign on both sides of the Atlantic is directed towards one overarching goal—to undermine the democracies of the West, to…