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Mari Megias: 

Good day, everyone. I am Mari Megias in the Office of Alumni Relations and Resource Development at Harvard Kennedy School, and I’m delighted to welcome you to this Wiener Conference Call. Today we are joined by David Gergen, who is professor of public service and founding director of the Center for Public Leadership at Harvard Kennedy School. In addition, he serves a senior political analyst for CNN and works actively with a rising generation of new leaders. In the past he has served as a White House advisor to four U.S. presidents of both parties, Presidents Nixon, Ford, Reagan, and Clinton.

In the 1980s he began a career in journalism starting with the MacNeil-Lehrer NewsHour in 1984. He’s been a regular commentator on public affairs for some 30 years, plus he has been a member of election coverage teams that have won Peabody awards, and he has contributed to two Emmy-award winning political analysis teams. He’s an honors graduate of Yale and Harvard Law School and has been awarded 27 honorary degrees. We’re so fortunate that David has returned to share his expertise with us today. So, let’s get started. Why don’t you tell us a little bit about the political landscape for 2020?

David Gergen:
Sure. I’d be happy to, but first of all, thank you for sponsoring these events. And I’ve heard good reports from that it’s good feedback. Most of all, I want to thank Malcolm Wiener for his continuing support and generosity with regard to the School. I understand, Malcolm, you may be on the line at this moment and if so, welcome. I’d love to talk to you in person. But the Wiener Center and the Wiener Lecture on International Political Economy and all the other things he supports, he and his family. We’re very fortunate indeed.

Now, on to some mostly darker subjects. Let me preface my remarks by saying that as someone ... I think it’s a privilege to work in the White House, and I’ve been quadruply blessed and having a chance to work in four White Houses. And one of the things you find is, when you work in that place you become very dedicated to the success of the president and the success of the office of the presidency. And I think it’s almost our secular center in the White House and the Oval Office, and all the trappings that go with it.

So that when Donald Trump was elected, even though I disagreed with him on much and I was very concerned about his character, I still wanted him to succeed. And I hope that when he can do things such criminal justice with the other side, that’s a plus for the country and I hope more of that will follow. Having said all that, of course, I’m extremely disappointed by where we are and I share the alarm and the concern that many people have now about where this is going, and what may come. Two things. One, what may happen in the reelect campaign, and secondly is what happens if Trump isn’t reelected, after Trump does leave office. Does it survive? Does it continue? Do we come out of this? Do we heal?

I think those are serious questions now and for the first time in, I think, our lives, most of us on this call never imagined that our democracy itself would be under threat. And yet, we do feel that today. So, I have to say if the election were held today I think Donald Trump would win, and possibly win big.

This is going to be a tough race to win for the Democrats in any event. We’ve had now ... Since 1980 we’ve had five presidents. Of those five, four won reelection. Only one lost reelection. So, the pendulum has swung in that direction pretty heavily.

And then, because the president has a lot of individual power and perks that he can do ... And we’ve seen this president, I think, there are many steps he’s taken in the last few weeks which are all directed and aimed at reelect. Be it from the small things like going to Daytona with his car and everything like that, to the big things like taking out Suleimani. And the new announcement of the Mideast peace plan that Jared Kushner put together and the like. So, he does have that authority and he will play it.

And he still has the continuing ear for the anger, and frustrations, and disappointments of the country and what’s been coming out of Washington over the last few decades. And he has a built-in advantage in the Electoral College that we all know. Democrats, sophisticated Democrats, tell me you almost have to get 52, 53 percent of the vote on the Democratic side in order to win the Electoral College. So, those are big numbers to climb for anybody. But what is interesting right now is there are a lot of Republicans and especially a lot of independents who are in the search to ask the question, “Is there anybody else other than Trump that I could support?”

And that’s the fight that’s now going on. Is there somebody who will emerge from the Democratic pack who the other independent voters and some Republicans might rally behind? And so far, I don’t think they’ve seen that candidate. It’s going to evolve, the perspectives on candidates can change. But right now the Democrats are mired more in their own infighting than they are in trying to figure out exactly how to beat Trump, and get united behind a program of the economy and on health care and on the other issues that are going to make a big difference.

I think the debate tonight will be fascinating and probably the most interesting of all the debates we’ve had other than just the first couple. And as Bloomberg says now that he’s finally entered the ring, there has been a lot of advertising. He has been defined by his ads not by who he is. This is an opportunity for him. If he could punch through tonight, if he can connect with the voters, there could be a serious break. This could change the whole dynamic of the race. On the other hand, if he bums tonight or if he’s flat, or he doesn’t communicate very well, then that pushes the pressure back to who is the moderate that’s going to dominate?

They’ve got to get a candidate to go up against Sanders/Warren, and so far they’ve been searching. I don’t think they’ve found that right person. My own sense is that Bloomberg has ... His people are downplaying his capacity. He hasn’t done this for a long time, he’s never really been in this situation and five or six people may pile up on him. And therefore, they’re downplaying his chances. My hunch is he’ll do a lot better than people think. He’s a smart guy, and he’s pretty quick with ... He could be a quick ... He can be very quick in a response and he can be a little sharp at times. But he has a lot of managerial experience.

I think he’s risen in the polls and it’s not simply because of the ads, but people also recognize this is a big, substantial person. He’s done a big job. Having been mayor of New York is no easy thing and he got elected three times. Plus he built an empire, a personal empire. This is a guy who ... He didn’t come out of money, he didn’t inherit it as Trump did. He was parking cars when he was in college. So, I think that Bloomberg will be better and that will shake up the race, but if he does not, Biden has to come in number two, and if it got to be a close race between Sanders and ... Biden has to come in number two in Nevada, and I think he has a good shot at doing that but he has to do that.

The one I’m keeping an eye on is Amy Klobuchar. I don’t ... The reports from last night’s town hall about Amy are not glowing, but she’s been very, very good in these debates, nowhere more so than the last one. I think she’s earned her way to the top of the ticket to be vice president. On any short list you’ve got to put Amy Klobuchar at the top of the list. But she has the capacity perhaps to go beyond that. She’s been strengthening steadily through this campaign. She is the one who has shown the most growth of any of the candidates during the campaign, and maybe she can catch fire.

I do think that the moderate wing of the party is going to be extremely distressed, if not panicked, if Bernie sweeps Nevada by 10 points and carries a 10-point lead into Super Tuesday. Bernie Sanders has many, many good qualities and it’s striking how the younger generation is going to him. But when you get down ... But the Republicans have been intentionally not going after him very heavily on his proposals for the future. They know there’s a lot of ammunition in there and they would be gleeful to start unloading that ammunition at Bernie somewhere along the way here.

So, a lot here is still to be determined. But we do know the stakes for this election are extraordinarily high. I think we’re beginning to see ... After there was some question about turnout we’re beginning to see higher turnout numbers certainly in New Hampshire and in the early first voting in Nevada. I think Americans are awakening to the issue that this is big-time stuff and we haven’t seen an election like this before and it’s a test of our democracy. So, the important things.

The important thing is that a place like the Kennedy School … the scholars, members of the faculty are really very, very caught up these days with questions about the future of democracy. Let me stop there. Let’s go to the floor, so to speak. 

Q: What will happen with Bernie Sanders’ supporters if he does not win the nomination? Will they bail? Can you discuss the left-center split in the Democratic Party and how this will affect their chances in November?

Well, listen, there is a danger of that a lot of Bernie’s people could stay home. The last time around in the last election when Hillary ran, there was great anger on the part of Hillary’s people that Bernie was not more supportive personally of her candidacy and that he didn’t rally his troops. And they felt, I think with some justification, the Hillary people felt with some justification at the end of the day he really hurt her chances to be president. Now, will that happen again? I don’t know. Because he’s four years older he’s closer to leaving a legacy than he was four years ago. He’s closer to having his reputation depend on how this all comes out.

And I do think he knows that if he loses the nomination and is bitter about it and withdraws his support, that he would go down in the history books as a very sore loser and one who is not truly a Democrat but was exploiting the party in order to push his agenda.

Q: How worried should we be that there appears to be no Democrats who can successfully compete with the billion-dollar disinformation campaign run by Trump’s operations?

Well, look. I think this is one of the ... It’s like dark money. There is something sinister afoot here and the way that the Russians and others for certain have disinformation campaigns. We’re already finding that they’re coming in pretty heavily and that we don’t know the degree of cooperation that may be ... Or for those of you who are familiar with collusion, that may be underway here. What is very upsetting and alarming is that with very, very few exceptions in terms of who runs this administration, there are complacencies or the unwillingness to face up to the urgent ... What may be an urgent problem a few months from now.

It’s stunning. I do not understand why the administration hasn’t at least given the appearance of ... They’re not even trying. But to block out this disinformation, to work with the high-tech people, the big tech people, and what things they ... Often what is not permissible and to recognize that this is an outside group of people, one whose main policies ... Putin’s main policy is to turn the United States upside down, to divide us as a people, and he’s succeeding. And yet we have a White House that sort of said ... Treats it as ho-hum.

Q: I’m from North Carolina. David was my advisor when I was there but ... I don’t know who else is on the call, but as a second grader in the South I remember hiding under the desk during the Cuban missile crisis. I didn’t know as a seven-year-old that there was such a crisis, but as a seven-year-old and a Southerner, in those days we did what our teachers told us to do. And so, since that time ... You heard stories like Khrushchev had put poison in the snow. All kinds of rumors that a young person would tend to believe. Because I was tuned into Walter Cronkite but not as much as my grandmother was. But as the ... passed on, and I took physics, I learned that hiding under a desk wasn’t going to save us. That the Russians had nuclear missiles 30 miles outside of the country and there was a real threat. And since that time I’ve always been cautious about the Russians. I don’t know what Putin’s motives are, but I can tell from listening to David he’s concerned, but ... And I’ve asked some people ... Because I live near Fort Bragg, I’ve asked some of the military guys, “How concerned are you about a threat?” Because if we ever have a nuclear war a lot of us are just not going to make it. So, to get to my question, I’m concerned that the country is not concerned about the relationship our president has with Russia. And I think most of us should be concerned about it.

Well, I’m glad you raised the question. I share your sentiments. I also share some of your experiences growing up. I grew up on a dirt road in North Carolina, and well remember those days when we had to be under a desk because the bombs might be coming. I remember even more distinctly because I was in college at the time during the Cuban missile crisis. It scared the dickens out of us. I was studying in New Haven, and a group of us who had a car we were going to head for Canada until they turned that thing around, so we wanted to get out of harm’s way.

And look. I think the most sinister thing we’re facing right now is the disinformation and the hacking that’s going on, and we know it’s happening. And our intelligence community, to a person, people in our intelligence community who are leaders in the intelligence community have all argued that this is serious, it’s ongoing, and we ought to take it very, very seriously. But I want to go to the second point, and that is, how close are we to a potential nuclear threat again? And it’s interesting. There’s this group of businesses who keep a Doomsday Clock, a so-called Doomsday Clock, about how close are we to midnight. And they make that judgment once a year. And these past few months their annual judgment came down, we’re closer now that at any time they’ve measured since the start of the Doomsday Clock, and I think that has to do partly with the Iranians and the Iran Agreement. It also has to do with the North Koreans and the ... It’s a failure to be able to relate and get a hold of either one of these problems. We don’t hear about them these days, but these are serious gaping holes. And for the Doomsday Clock to be moved that perilously close to midnight, it ought to be a wake-up call that international security, national security, and what the Belfer Center folks do so well at the Kennedy School, should be of top concern along with the disinformation and hacking.

Q: Hi, David. Thanks to you for you for your time. It’s great to have you. Thank you. I know this is officially about the Democratic primary, but this question extends a little bit past it and maybe it’s a little bit of a two-parter. One is the accusations that have been leaked out with Bloomberg, the sexism issues and some race issues. Does that undermine ... If you were to be the nominee, the Democratic party’s ... The Democratic nominee’s ability to counter or go after Trump on those two issues also. And linked maybe at a deeper level, it seems like in 2016 one characterization of Hillary was, “Trump’s terrible, so I’m the right person.” And it didn’t work. And it seems like Bloomberg is trying to raise himself above the Democratic primary by just attacking Trump. So, he might be taking that same tack. It didn’t work in 2016. What are your thoughts about its potential effectiveness in 2020?

Yeah. All these questions ... And by the way, for everybody else here who’s on the call, please know that this is wide open. Any question you want to ask. This is about more than the Democratic primaries and it’s really about your experience about ... And I’m sure you have great questions. I’m not sure I have good answers. But nonetheless, listen. I think that the allegations about sexism and racism attached to Bloomberg and the early attacks, they are going to be very meaningful in the Democratic party. The Democratic party is nothing if not extremely sensitive to issues of race and issues of sexual orientation. And who ... Issues of where women stand more generally in our society, and I think that if you get the nomination, that path, you have to have shown that you have the concern for it. I do think Bloomberg has helped himself by ... Especially on stop and frisk, by apologizing. And he might well have done that earlier.

There are many people who are not going to be forgiving of him, period, whatever he says. But he did the right thing. He apologized. I don’t think I’ve ever heard an apology come out of our president. He doesn’t believe in apologizing. But very importantly I want to ... The caller asked compared to Hillary’s campaign, and there was a sense in which I thought the Hillary campaign was too much about attacking the other side and too little about fresh ideas for the future. Most of the ideas that she was promoting were sort of old chestnuts within the Democratic party, and they seemed a little stale, frankly.

And what’s been interesting with Bloomberg is he’s starting now to gear up with position papers that are attracting positive attention. Just take ... Now it’s two or three days that David Leonhardt of The New York Times, well-respected journalist. He did come out of Yale, I might add now. But he had a really interesting column on one of Bloomberg’s first entrees into the policy prescription field, which was on paying for college. And he did it in some very skillful and interesting ways. It wasn’t free college for everybody. It was to put a real emphasis upon people getting money who are doing things preparing for jobs. And it wasn’t the healthy elite.

And by the way, he’s also put out a plan to raise taxes on himself as well as other very rich people. And so, I think that Bloomberg is laying the foundation for a future-looking campaign if he were the nominee. You have to say that Elizabeth Warren I think has done the most comprehensive work than any candidate in preparing plans. But sadly in her case she tripped up on the Medicare for All plan, when she said basically ... What she started with and she seemed too hard over that she wasn’t going to compromise. And then here comes Buttigieg saying, “No, it ought to be Medicare plus a choice.” And that’s a very popular position, whereas her position is very unpopular.

And then just in the last few days one of her top campaign people, I think it was AOC, said, “Well, we may have to compromise.” Well, Elizabeth then started beating up on everybody who didn’t want to compromise, Buttigieg and others, and then along comes AOC, and that caused frankly some anger on the Democratic side. I think this question is going to be true of whoever runs against Trump. The country mostly knows about who he is, and his character, and the flaws, and you’ve got to remind them of that periodically.

But the most important thing is to run ... To state what you’re for in the future, how you’re going to shape things differently and not just having a negative campaign. Hillary lost I think in part because she didn’t do that.

Well, thank you for that. We do have another caller on the line. If you could please