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Delivery worker wearing a medical mask and carrying packages.
Feature: The Impact of State Paid Sick Leave Laws on Service Workers

Daniel Schneider finds that state paid sick leave laws increased service workers’ access to paid sick leave and reduced the share of service workers who worked while sick.

A family with a father, mother, and two small children walking on a dirt path.
Feature: Connecting Absolute and Relative Intergenerational Mobility

Deirdre Bloome offers two frameworks for understanding the relationship between types of intergenerational mobility, or whether people are socioeconomically better off than their parents.

Two women in rural India dressed colorfully and carrying baskets on their heads.
Feature: Studying a Government Program to Support Women’s Self-Help Groups

Michael Walton explores the interactions between state and society in rural India within a major community-based development program, finding two major tensions.

A network of computer motherboards and other parts assembled to look like a miniature city.
Feature: The Data-Informed City

Jorrit de Jong presents a comprehensive framework for how cities can use data to address problems more effectively, efficiently, equitably, and with better accountability.

Harvard Kennedy School faculty disseminate their research in working publications and papers that contribute to public knowledge and fuel policy innovation. This list features recent faculty publications, including journal articles, books, edited volumes, research papers, and public testimony.

Faculty Publications

Risk-aversion with both high and low ambiguity: Elevated OCD symptom severity and intolerance of uncertainty are associated with less risk-taking in an OCD patient sub-sample

Jacoby, Ryan J., Dalton L. Klare, Caroline H. Armstrong, Susanne S. Hoeppner, Jennifer Lerner, and Sabine Wilhelm. "Risk-aversion with both high and low ambiguity: Elevated OCD symptom severity and intolerance of uncertainty are associated with less risk-taking in an OCD patient sub-sample." Journal of Obsessive-Compulsive and Related Disorders 46 (July 2025): 100955.

Artificial Intelligence-Assisted Emergency Department Vertical Patient Flow Optimization

Hodgson, Nicole R., Soroush, Saghafian, Wayne A. Martini, Arshya Feizi, and Agni Orfanourdaki. "Artificial Intelligence-Assisted Emergency Department Vertical Patient Flow Optimization." Journal of Personalized Medicine 15.6 (June 2025): 219.

Trump Deregulatory Acts Focus on Costs, Not Overall Well-Being

Aldy, Joseph. "Trump Deregulatory Acts Focus on Costs, Not Overall Well-Being." Environmental Forum, 42.3, May-June 2025, 15.

Putting US Fiscal Policy on a Sustainable Path

Dynan, Karen, and Douglas Elmendorf. "Putting US Fiscal Policy on a Sustainable Path." NBER Working Paper Series, May 2025.

Building Capacity to Govern Cooperatively in Pursuit of Sustainable Development: Lessons from scholarship and practice

Harley, Alicia G., and William C. Clark. "Building Capacity to Govern Cooperatively in Pursuit of Sustainable Development: Lessons from scholarship and practice." Sustainability Science Program Working Paper Series, April 22, 2025.

Exploring Democratic Deliberation in Public Health: Bridging Division and Enhancing Community Engagement

Bosché, Michelle, Rachel Krust, Archon Fung, and Aditya S. Pawar. "Exploring Democratic Deliberation in Public Health: Bridging Division and Enhancing Community Engagement." American Journal of Public Health 115.4 (April 2025): 500-505.

Excess Mortality Rate in Black Children Since 1950 in the United States: A 70-Year Population-Based Study of Racial Inequalities

Paternina-Caicedo, Angel, Oscar Espinosa, Sangini S. Sheth, Nathaniel Hupert, and Soroush Saghafian. "Excess Mortality Rate in Black Children Since 1950 in the United States: A 70-Year Population-Based Study of Racial Inequalities." Annals of Internal Medicine (25 March 2025).

Private Benefits from Public Investment in Climate Adaptation and Resilience

Bradt, Jacob T. and Joseph E. Aldy. "Private Benefits from Public Investment in Climate Adaptation and Resilience." March 24, 2025.

Energy, Climate, Growth

Sinha, Jayant, Robert Stavins, Jessica Seddon, and Arunabha Ghosh. "Energy, Climate, Growth." Navigating Challenges for Sustainable Growth. Ed. Suman Bery, Kapil Kapoor, and Jean-Louis Arcand. Singapore: Springer, 2025, 1-18.

Technology, Policy, Jobs; Multilateralism: Geopolitics, Governance, and the Global Commons

Lawrence, Robert Z., and Homi Kharas. "Technology, Policy, Jobs; Multilateralism: Geopolitics, Governance, and the Global Commons." Navigating Challenges for Sustainable Growth. Ed. Suman Bery, Kapil Kapoor, and Jean-Louis Arcand. Singapore: Springer, 2025.

Methane Abatement Costs in the Oil and Gas Industry: Survey and Synthesis

Aldy, Joseph E., Forest L. Reinhardt, and Robert N. Stavins. "Methane Abatement Costs in the Oil and Gas Industry: Survey and Synthesis." NBER Working Paper Series, March 2025.

Digital phenotyping in bipolar disorder: Using longitudinal Fitbit data and personalized machine learning to predict mood symptomatology

Lipschitz, Jessica M., Sidian Lin, Soroush Saghafian, Chelsea K. Pike, and Katherine E. Burdick. "Digital phenotyping in bipolar disorder: Using longitudinal Fitbit data and personalized machine learning to predict mood symptomatology." Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica 151.3 (March 2025): 434-447.

Variation in batch ordering of imaging tests in the emergency department and the impact on care delivery

Jameson, Jacob C., Soroush Saghafian, Robert S. Huckman, and Nicole Hodgson. "Variation in batch ordering of imaging tests in the emergency department and the impact on care delivery." Health Services Research 60.1 (February 2025): e14406.

Important Economic Benefits of a Bipartisan Climate Change Policy

Aldy, Joseph. "Important Economic Benefits of a Bipartisan Climate Change Policy." Environmental Forum, 42.1, January/February 2025, 15.

Building Capacity to Measure Sustainability: Lessons from scholarship and practice

Harley, Alicia G., and William C. Clark. "Building Capacity to Measure Sustainability: Lessons from scholarship and practice." Sustainability Science Program Working Paper Series, January 29, 2025.

Don’t look to efficiency for big deficit reductions

Dynan, Karen, and Doug Elmendorf. "Don’t look to efficiency for big deficit reductions." What awaits the Department of Government Efficiency? vlog experts on prospects for a radical new initiative, January 15, 2025.

A Framework for Considering the Value of Race and Ethnicity in Estimating Disease Risk

Coots, Madison, Soroush Saghafian, David M. Kent, and Sharad Goel. "A Framework for Considering the Value of Race and Ethnicity in Estimating Disease Risk." Annals of Internal Medicine 178.1 (January 2025): 98-107.

Effective Generative AI: The Human-Algorithm Centaur

Saghafian, Soroush, and Lihi Idan. "Effective Generative AI: The Human-Algorithm Centaur." Harvard Data Science Review Special Issue 5 (December 19, 2024).

GDP as a Measure of Economic Well-Being

Dynan, Karen, and Louise Sheiner. "GDP as a Measure of Economic Well-Being." The Measure of Economies: Measuring Productivity in an Age of Technological Change. Ed. Reinsdorf, Marshall B. and Louise Sheiner. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 2024.

Fiscal policy and the pandemic-era surge in US inflation: Lessons for the future

Dynan, Karen, and Douglas Elmendorf. "Fiscal policy and the pandemic-era surge in US inflation: Lessons for the future." Understanding the COVID Era Inflation, Peterson Institute for International Economics, December 2024.

The True Cost of Living

Summers, Lawrence H., Marijn A. Bolhuis, and Judd Cramer. "The True Cost of Living." Finance & Development. December 2024.

Genomic heterogeneity and ploidy identify patients with intrinsic resistance to PD-1 blockade in metastatic melanoma

Tarantino, Giuseppe, Cora A. Ricker, Annette Wang ... Soroush Saghafian et al. "Genomic heterogeneity and ploidy identify patients with intrinsic resistance to PD-1 blockade in metastatic melanoma." Science Advances 10.48 (29 November 2024): eadp4670.

Dynamic Assignment of Patients to Primary and Secondary Inpatient Units: Is Patience a Virtue?

Saghafian, Soroush, Derya Kilinic, and Stephen J. Traub. "Dynamic Assignment of Patients to Primary and Secondary Inpatient Units: Is Patience a Virtue?" The Cambridge Handbook of Healthcare Productivity, Efficiency, Effectiveness. Ed. Shawna Grosskopf, Vivian Valdmanis, and Valentin Zelenyuk. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2024, 612-656.

How Big is the “Biggest Climate Spending Bill Ever?” Key Factors Influencing the Inflation Reduction Act’s Clean Energy Impacts

Aldy, Joseph. "How Big is the “Biggest Climate Spending Bill Ever?” Key Factors Influencing the Inflation Reduction Act’s Clean Energy Impacts." RWP24-007, November 2024.

Global health 2050: the path to halving premature death by
mid-century

Jamison, Dean T., Lawrence H. Summers, et al. "Global health 2050: the path to halving premature death by mid-century." The Lancet 404.10462 (October 2024): 1561-1614.

Technological Disruption in the US Labor Market

Deming, David, Christopher Ong, and Lawrence Summers. "Technological Disruption in the US Labor Market." Strengthening America’s Economic Dynamism. Ed. Melissa S. Kearney and Luke Pardue. Washington, DC: Aspen Institute, 2024.

Ambiguous Dynamic Treatment Regimes: A Reinforcement Learning Approach

Saghafian, Soroush. "Ambiguous Dynamic Treatment Regimes: A Reinforcement Learning Approach." Management Science 70.9 (September 2024): 5667-5690.

Behind the Curve: Can Manufacturing Still Provide Inclusive Growth?

Lawrence, Robert Z. Behind the Curve: Can Manufacturing Still Provide Inclusive Growth? Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2024.

Drivers, adaptations, and public impacts of hospital closures, implications for policy

Saghafian, Soroush. "Drivers, adaptations, and public impacts of hospital closures, implications for policy." Perspectives: Frontiers in Public Health 12 (August 12, 2024): 1415033.

Showcasing advances and building community in modeling for sustainability

Selin, Noelle E., Amanda Giang, and William C. Clark. "Showcasing advances and building community in modeling for sustainability." PNAS 121.29 (July 16, 2024): e2215689121.

Martin L. Weitzman (1942–2019)

Stavins, Robert N., and Gernot Wagner. "Martin L. Weitzman (1942–2019)." The Palgrave Companion to Harvard Economics. Palgrave Macmillan, 2024.

Populist opposition is threatening progress on climate change

Campanella, Edoardo, and Robert Z. Lawrence. "Populist opposition is threatening progress on climate change." PIIE Working Paper Series, July 2024.

The role of positive emotion in harmful health behavior: Implications for theory and public health campaigns

Wang, Ke, Vaughan W. Rees, Charles A. Dorison, and Jennifer S. Lerner. "The role of positive emotion in harmful health behavior: Implications for theory and public health campaigns." PNAS 121.28 (July 1, 2024).

Conflict of interest in government: Avoiding ethical and conceptual mistakes

Fung, Archon, and Dennis Thompson. "Conflict of interest in government: Avoiding ethical and conceptual mistakes." Governance (June 2024).

From Crisis to Opportunity: How the City of Portland Embraced Democratic Innovation

Fung, Archon, Max Kiefel, and Nick Chedli Carter. "From Crisis to Opportunity: How the City of Portland Embraced Democratic Innovation." Ash Center Occasional Papers Series, June 2024.

Normalizing Reparations: U.S. Precedent, Norms, and Models for Compensating Harms and Implications for Reparations to Black Americans

Bilmes, Linda J., and Cornell Brooks. "Normalizing Reparations: U.S. Precedent, Norms, and Models for Compensating Harms and Implications for Reparations to Black Americans." RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences 10.2 (June 2024): 30-67.

When Democracy Breaks: Studies in Democratic Erosion and Collapse, from Ancient Athens to the Present Day

Fung, Archon, David Moss, and Odd Arne Westad, eds. When Democracy Breaks: Studies in Democratic Erosion and Collapse, from Ancient Athens to the Present Day. Oxford University Press, 2024.

Empowering Affected Interests: Democratic Inclusion in A Globalized World

Fung, Archon, and Sean Gray, eds. Empowering Affected Interests: Democratic Inclusion in A Globalized World. Cambridge University Press, 2024.

The Cost of Money is Part of the Cost of Living: New Evidence on the Consumer Sentiment Anomaly

Bolhuis, Marijn A., Judd N. L. Cramer, Karl Oskar Schulz, and Lawrence H. Summers. "The Cost of Money is Part of the Cost of Living: New Evidence on the Consumer Sentiment Anomaly." NBER Working Paper Series, February 2024.

Migrants Can Be a Transformative Force for Sustainable Development

Fransen, Sonja, Neil Adger, Ricardo Safra de Campos, and William C. Clark. "Migrants Can Be a Transformative Force for Sustainable Development." The Conversation. January 18, 2024.

Migration and Sustainable Development

Adger, William Neil, Sonja Fransen, Ricardo Safra de Campos, and William C. Clark. "Migration and Sustainable Development." PNAS 121.3 (January 16, 2024): e2206193121.

Scientific Frontiers on Migration and Sustainability

Adger, William Neil, Sonja Fransen, Ricardo Safra de Campos, and William C. Clark. "Scientific Frontiers on Migration and Sustainability." PNAS 121.3 (January 16, 2024): e2321325121.

Diabetes mellitus and blood glucose variability increases the 30-day readmission rate after kidney transplantation

Orfanoudaki, Agni, Curtiss B. Cook, Soroush Saghafian, Janna Castro, Heidi E. Kosiorek, Harini A. Chakkera. "Diabetes mellitus and blood glucose variability increases the 30-day readmission rate after kidney transplantation." Clinical Transplantation 38.1 (January 2024): e15177.

Climate action: Implications for factor market reallocation

Lawrence, Robert Z. "Climate action: Implications for factor market reallocation." PIIE Working Paper Series, January 2024.

New rules for a challenged trading system: the role of safeguards

Lawrence, Robert Z. "New rules for a challenged trading system: the role of safeguards." The Elgar Companion to the World Trade Organization. Ed. Julien Chaisse and Cristián Rodríguez-Chiffelle. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2023, 676-690.

Is the Pursuit of Efficiency in Healthcare Worth the Gamble?

Saghafian, Soroush. "Is the Pursuit of Efficiency in Healthcare Worth the Gamble?" INFORMS OR/MS Today, December 6, 2023.

The Impact of Vertical Integration on Physician Behavior and Healthcare Delivery: Evidence from Gastroenterology Practices

Saghafian, Soroush, Lina Song, Joseph Newhouse, Mary Beth Landrum, and John Hsu. "The Impact of Vertical Integration on Physician Behavior and Healthcare Delivery: Evidence from Gastroenterology Practices." Management Science 69.12 (December 2023): 7151-7882.

Behind the Curve: Can Manufacturing Still Provide Inclusive Growth?

Lawrence, Robert Z. Behind the Curve: Can Manufacturing Still Provide Inclusive Growth? Columbia University Press, 2023.

System transitions research and sustainable development: Challenges, progress, and prospects

Geels, Frank W., Florian Kern, and William C. Clark. "System transitions research and sustainable development: Challenges, progress, and prospects." PNAS 120.47 (November 21, 2023): e2206230120.

Sustainability Transitions in Consumption-Production Systems

Geels, Frank W., Florian Kern, and William C. Clark. "Sustainability Transitions in Consumption-Production Systems." PNAS 120.47 (November 21, 2023): e2310070120.