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The White House lawn on a sunny day.
Feature: Is DOGE Sure It Wants to Fire These People?

Juliette Kayyem examines the negative effects that Elon Musks’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) could have on the safety of everyday Americans.

River running through a densely populated area.
Feature: Private Benefits from Public Investment in Climate Resilience

Joseph Aldy finds that governmental construction of levees, which enhance resilience to flood risks amplified by climate change, increases home values by 3-4 percent.

Person sits on a bed holding a check.
Feature: Assessing Government Outreach to Bolster Benefits Take-Up

Elizabeth Linos finds that light-touch interventions significantly, consistently, and cost-effectively increase benefits take-up among low-income households, while higher-touch proactive outreach yields minimal additional take-up.

Black family happily sits on the grass in a park.
Feature: Excess Mortality Rate in U.S. Black Children Since 1950

Soroush Saghafian finds that 5 million excess deaths of Black Americans, including over 500,000 infants, could have been avoided over the past 70 years if their mortality rates were equal to those of White Americans.

Harvard Kennedy School faculty disseminate their research in working publications and papers that contribute to public knowledge and fuel policy innovation. This list features recent faculty publications, including journal articles, books, edited volumes, research papers, and public testimony.

Faculty Publications

Exploring Democratic Deliberation in Public Health: Bridging Division and Enhancing Community Engagement

Bosché, Michelle, Rachel Krust, Archon Fung, and Aditya S. Pawar. "Exploring Democratic Deliberation in Public Health: Bridging Division and Enhancing Community Engagement." American Journal of Public Health 115.4 (April 2025): 500-505.

The Post-Neoliberal Delusion And the Tragedy of Bidenomics

Furman, Jason. "The Post-Neoliberal Delusion And the Tragedy of Bidenomics." Foreign Affairs, March/April 2025.

Excess Mortality Rate in Black Children Since 1950 in the United States: A 70-Year Population-Based Study of Racial Inequalities

Paternina-Caicedo, Angel, Oscar Espinosa, Sangini S. Sheth, Nathaniel Hupert, and Soroush Saghafian. "Excess Mortality Rate in Black Children Since 1950 in the United States: A 70-Year Population-Based Study of Racial Inequalities." Annals of Internal Medicine (25 March 2025).

Private Benefits from Public Investment in Climate Adaptation and Resilience

Bradt, Jacob T. and Joseph E. Aldy. "Private Benefits from Public Investment in Climate Adaptation and Resilience." March 24, 2025.

Energy, Climate, Growth

Sinha, Jayant, Robert Stavins, Jessica Seddon, and Arunabha Ghosh. "Energy, Climate, Growth." Navigating Challenges for Sustainable Growth. Ed. Suman Bery, Kapil Kapoor, and Jean-Louis Arcand. Singapore: Springer, 2025, 1-18.

Technology, Policy, Jobs; Multilateralism: Geopolitics, Governance, and the Global Commons

Lawrence, Robert Z., and Homi Kharas. "Technology, Policy, Jobs; Multilateralism: Geopolitics, Governance, and the Global Commons." Navigating Challenges for Sustainable Growth. Ed. Suman Bery, Kapil Kapoor, and Jean-Louis Arcand. Singapore: Springer, 2025.

Methane Abatement Costs in the Oil and Gas Industry: Survey and Synthesis

Aldy, Joseph E., Forest L. Reinhardt, and Robert N. Stavins. "Methane Abatement Costs in the Oil and Gas Industry: Survey and Synthesis." NBER Working Paper Series, March 2025.

Digital phenotyping in bipolar disorder: Using longitudinal Fitbit data and personalized machine learning to predict mood symptomatology

Lipschitz, Jessica M., Sidian Lin, Soroush Saghafian, Chelsea K. Pike, and Katherine E. Burdick. "Digital phenotyping in bipolar disorder: Using longitudinal Fitbit data and personalized machine learning to predict mood symptomatology." Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica 151.3 (March 2025): 434-447.

Expert Patients’ Use of Avoidable Health Care

Chandra, Amitabh, Pragya Kakani, and Simone Matecna. "Expert Patients’ Use of Avoidable Health Care." NBER Working Paper Series, March 2025.

Building Capacity to Adapt Development Pathways to Protect Human Well-being in the Face of Shocks: Lessons from scholarship and practice

Harley, Alicia G., and William C. Clark. "Building Capacity to Adapt Development Pathways to Protect Human Well-being in the Face of Shocks: Lessons from scholarship and practice." Sustainability Science Program Working Paper Series, February 16, 2025.

Variation in batch ordering of imaging tests in the emergency department and the impact on care delivery

Jameson, Jacob C., Soroush Saghafian, Robert S. Huckman, and Nicole Hodgson. "Variation in batch ordering of imaging tests in the emergency department and the impact on care delivery." Health Services Research 60.1 (February 2025): e14406.

Building Capacity to Measure Sustainability: Lessons from scholarship and practice

Harley, Alicia G., and William C. Clark. "Building Capacity to Measure Sustainability: Lessons from scholarship and practice." Sustainability Science Program Working Paper Series, January 29, 2025.

Make Work Fair: Data-Driven Design for Real Results

Bohnet, Iris, and Siri Chilazi. Make Work Fair: Data-Driven Design for Real Results. New York: HarperCollins, 2025.

Behaviorally Designed Training Leads to More Diverse Hiring

Arslan, Cansin, Edward H. Chang, Siri Chilazi, Iris Bohnet, and Oliver P. Hauser. "Behaviorally Designed Training Leads to More Diverse Hiring." Science 387.6732 (24 Jan 2025): 364-366.

The Biopolitics of CRISPR

Jasanoff, Sheila. "The Biopolitics of CRISPR." The CRISPR Revolution in Science, Religion, and Ethics. Ed. Arvin M. Gouw and Ted Peters. London: Bloomsbury Academic, 2025.

Don’t look to efficiency for big deficit reductions

Dynan, Karen, and Doug Elmendorf. "Don’t look to efficiency for big deficit reductions." What awaits the Department of Government Efficiency? ĚÇĐÄvlogąŮÍř experts on prospects for a radical new initiative, January 15, 2025.

A Framework for Considering the Value of Race and Ethnicity in Estimating Disease Risk

Coots, Madison, Soroush Saghafian, David M. Kent, and Sharad Goel. "A Framework for Considering the Value of Race and Ethnicity in Estimating Disease Risk." Annals of Internal Medicine 178.1 (January 2025): 98-107.

Effective Generative AI: The Human-Algorithm Centaur

Saghafian, Soroush, and Lihi Idan. "Effective Generative AI: The Human-Algorithm Centaur." Harvard Data Science Review Special Issue 5 (December 19, 2024).

Playing Divide-and-Choose Given Uncertain Preferences

Tucker-Foltz, Jamie, and Richard Zeckhauser. "Playing Divide-and-Choose Given Uncertain Preferences." RWP22-008, December 2024.

Supporting Postsecondary Readiness in Rural Districts: Experimental Evidence from a Rural Research Network

Swanson, Elise, Jennifer Ash, Sativa Thompson, Lisa Sanbonmatsu, Christopher Avery, Douglas O. Staiger, and Thomas J. Kane. "Supporting Postsecondary Readiness in Rural Districts: Experimental Evidence from a Rural Research Network." Center for Education Policy Research and National Center for Rural Education Research Networks, December 2024.

Eight Questions—and Some Answers—on the US Fiscal Situation

Furman, Jason. "Eight Questions—and Some Answers—on the US Fiscal Situation." Strengthening America’s Economic Dynamism. Ed. Melissa S. Kearney and Luke Pardue. Washington, D.C.: Aspen Institute, 2024, 136-165.

GDP as a Measure of Economic Well-Being

Dynan, Karen, and Louise Sheiner. "GDP as a Measure of Economic Well-Being." The Measure of Economies: Measuring Productivity in an Age of Technological Change. Ed. Reinsdorf, Marshall B. and Louise Sheiner. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 2024.

Fiscal policy and the pandemic-era surge in US inflation: Lessons for the future

Dynan, Karen, and Douglas Elmendorf. "Fiscal policy and the pandemic-era surge in US inflation: Lessons for the future." Understanding the COVID Era Inflation, Peterson Institute for International Economics, December 2024.

The True Cost of Living

Summers, Lawrence H., Marijn A. Bolhuis, and Judd Cramer. "The True Cost of Living." Finance & Development. December 2024.

Genomic heterogeneity and ploidy identify patients with intrinsic resistance to PD-1 blockade in metastatic melanoma

Tarantino, Giuseppe, Cora A. Ricker, Annette Wang ... Soroush Saghafian et al. "Genomic heterogeneity and ploidy identify patients with intrinsic resistance to PD-1 blockade in metastatic melanoma." Science Advances 10.48 (29 November 2024): eadp4670.

Dynamic Assignment of Patients to Primary and Secondary Inpatient Units: Is Patience a Virtue?

Saghafian, Soroush, Derya Kilinic, and Stephen J. Traub. "Dynamic Assignment of Patients to Primary and Secondary Inpatient Units: Is Patience a Virtue?" The Cambridge Handbook of Healthcare Productivity, Efficiency, Effectiveness. Ed. Shawna Grosskopf, Vivian Valdmanis, and Valentin Zelenyuk. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2024, 612-656.

Supply Chain Management: A Public Sector Perspective

Fagan, Mark L. Supply Chain Management: A Public Sector Perspective. Cheltanham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2024.

How Big is the “Biggest Climate Spending Bill Ever?” Key Factors Influencing the Inflation Reduction Act’s Clean Energy Impacts

Aldy, Joseph. "How Big is the “Biggest Climate Spending Bill Ever?” Key Factors Influencing the Inflation Reduction Act’s Clean Energy Impacts." RWP24-007, November 2024.

Global health 2050: the path to halving premature death by
mid-century

Jamison, Dean T., Lawrence H. Summers, et al. "Global health 2050: the path to halving premature death by mid-century." The Lancet 404.10462 (October 2024): 1561-1614.

Technological Disruption in the US Labor Market

Deming, David, Christopher Ong, and Lawrence Summers. "Technological Disruption in the US Labor Market." Strengthening America’s Economic Dynamism. Ed. Melissa S. Kearney and Luke Pardue. Washington, DC: Aspen Institute, 2024.

Medicare Part D Protected-Class Policy Is Associated With Lower Drug Rebates

Kakani, Pragya, Michael Anne Kyle, Amitabh Chandra, and Luca Maini. "Medicare Part D Protected-Class Policy Is Associated With Lower Drug Rebates." Health Affairs 43.10 (October 2024): 1420-1427.

International Lending in War and Peace

Horn, Sebastian, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Chrisoph Trebesch. "International Lending in War and Peace." October 2024.

Ambiguous Dynamic Treatment Regimes: A Reinforcement Learning Approach

Saghafian, Soroush. "Ambiguous Dynamic Treatment Regimes: A Reinforcement Learning Approach." Management Science 70.9 (September 2024): 5667-5690.

Review of The Resilient Society

Furman, Jason. Review of The Resilient Society, by Markus K. Brunnermeier. Journal of Economic Literature, 62.3, September 2024: 1258-1259.

Carbon Copy: US Public Opinion on the Diffusion of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms

Ingles, Tayla, Rochelle Sun, and Dustin Tingley. "Carbon Copy: US Public Opinion on the Diffusion of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms." September 1, 2024.

Finance Goes to Hollywood

Frankel, Jeffrey. "Finance Goes to Hollywood." Project Syndicate, August 23, 2024.

Behind the Curve: Can Manufacturing Still Provide Inclusive Growth?

Lawrence, Robert Z. Behind the Curve: Can Manufacturing Still Provide Inclusive Growth? Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2024.

Drivers, adaptations, and public impacts of hospital closures, implications for policy

Saghafian, Soroush. "Drivers, adaptations, and public impacts of hospital closures, implications for policy." Perspectives: Frontiers in Public Health 12 (August 12, 2024): 1415033.

Why Are Stocks, Gold, and the Dollar Surging?

Frankel, Jeffrey. "Why Are Stocks, Gold, and the Dollar Surging?" Project Syndicate, July 24, 2024.

Showcasing advances and building community in modeling for sustainability

Selin, Noelle E., Amanda Giang, and William C. Clark. "Showcasing advances and building community in modeling for sustainability." PNAS 121.29 (July 16, 2024): e2215689121.

Martin L. Weitzman (1942–2019)

Stavins, Robert N., and Gernot Wagner. "Martin L. Weitzman (1942–2019)." The Palgrave Companion to Harvard Economics. Palgrave Macmillan, 2024.

Populist opposition is threatening progress on climate change

Campanella, Edoardo, and Robert Z. Lawrence. "Populist opposition is threatening progress on climate change." PIIE Working Paper Series, July 2024.

The role of positive emotion in harmful health behavior: Implications for theory and public health campaigns

Wang, Ke, Vaughan W. Rees, Charles A. Dorison, and Jennifer S. Lerner. "The role of positive emotion in harmful health behavior: Implications for theory and public health campaigns." PNAS 121.28 (July 1, 2024).

Tariffs on Chinese Cleantech Jeopardize the Green Transition

Frankel, Jeffrey. "Tariffs on Chinese Cleantech Jeopardize the Green Transition." Project Syndicate, June 25, 2024.

Conflict of interest in government: Avoiding ethical and conceptual mistakes

Fung, Archon, and Dennis Thompson. "Conflict of interest in government: Avoiding ethical and conceptual mistakes." Governance (June 2024).

Normalizing Reparations: U.S. Precedent, Norms, and Models for Compensating Harms and Implications for Reparations to Black Americans

Bilmes, Linda J., and Cornell Brooks. "Normalizing Reparations: U.S. Precedent, Norms, and Models for Compensating Harms and Implications for Reparations to Black Americans." RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences 10.2 (June 2024): 30-67.

From Crisis to Opportunity: How the City of Portland Embraced Democratic Innovation

Fung, Archon, Max Kiefel, and Nick Chedli Carter. "From Crisis to Opportunity: How the City of Portland Embraced Democratic Innovation." Ash Center Occasional Papers Series, June 2024.

Sovereign Debt: 200 Years of Creditor Losses

Graf Von Luckner, Clemens, Josefin Meyer, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Christoph Trebesch. "Sovereign Debt: 200 Years of Creditor Losses." NBER Working Paper Series, June 2024.

The Social Costs of Sovereign Default

Farah-Yacoub, Juan P., Clemens M. Graf von Luckner, and Carmen M. Reinhart. "The Social Costs of Sovereign Default." NBER Working Paper Series, June 2024.

It Is Time to Consider More Price Regulation in Health Care

Glied, Sherry, and Amitabh Chandra. "It Is Time to Consider More Price Regulation in Health Care." JAMA Forum 5.6 (June 2024): e242342.