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The White House lawn on a sunny day.
Feature: Is DOGE Sure It Wants to Fire These People?

Juliette Kayyem examines the negative effects that Elon Musks’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) could have on the safety of everyday Americans.

River running through a densely populated area.
Feature: Private Benefits from Public Investment in Climate Resilience

Joseph Aldy finds that governmental construction of levees, which enhance resilience to flood risks amplified by climate change, increases home values by 3-4 percent.

Person sits on a bed holding a check.
Feature: Assessing Government Outreach to Bolster Benefits Take-Up

Elizabeth Linos finds that light-touch interventions significantly, consistently, and cost-effectively increase benefits take-up among low-income households, while higher-touch proactive outreach yields minimal additional take-up.

Black family happily sits on the grass in a park.
Feature: Excess Mortality Rate in U.S. Black Children Since 1950

Soroush Saghafian finds that 5 million excess deaths of Black Americans, including over 500,000 infants, could have been avoided over the past 70 years if their mortality rates were equal to those of White Americans.

Harvard Kennedy School faculty disseminate their research in working publications and papers that contribute to public knowledge and fuel policy innovation. This list features recent faculty publications, including journal articles, books, edited volumes, research papers, and public testimony.

Faculty Publications

The Post-Neoliberal Delusion And the Tragedy of Bidenomics

Furman, Jason. "The Post-Neoliberal Delusion And the Tragedy of Bidenomics." Foreign Affairs, March/April 2025.

Recovering from COVID

Stock, James H., and Mark W. Watson. "Recovering from COVID." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, March 26, 2025.

Private Benefits from Public Investment in Climate Adaptation and Resilience

Bradt, Jacob T. and Joseph E. Aldy. "Private Benefits from Public Investment in Climate Adaptation and Resilience." March 24, 2025.

House to vote on budget to prevent shutdown

Elmendorf, Doug. "House to vote on budget to prevent shutdown." LiveNOW on FOX, March 11, 2025.

Energy, Climate, Growth

Sinha, Jayant, Robert Stavins, Jessica Seddon, and Arunabha Ghosh. "Energy, Climate, Growth." Navigating Challenges for Sustainable Growth. Ed. Suman Bery, Kapil Kapoor, and Jean-Louis Arcand. Singapore: Springer, 2025, 1-18.

What does the House-passed budget resolution mean?

Elmendorf, Doug. "What does the House-passed budget resolution mean?" Harvard Kennedy School, March 5, 2025.

Methane Abatement Costs in the Oil and Gas Industry: Survey and Synthesis

Aldy, Joseph E., Forest L. Reinhardt, and Robert N. Stavins. "Methane Abatement Costs in the Oil and Gas Industry: Survey and Synthesis." NBER Working Paper Series, March 2025.

Make Work Fair: Data-Driven Design for Real Results

Bohnet, Iris, and Siri Chilazi. Make Work Fair: Data-Driven Design for Real Results. New York: HarperCollins, 2025.

Behaviorally Designed Training Leads to More Diverse Hiring

Arslan, Cansin, Edward H. Chang, Siri Chilazi, Iris Bohnet, and Oliver P. Hauser. "Behaviorally Designed Training Leads to More Diverse Hiring." Science 387.6732 (24 Jan 2025): 364-366.

Don’t look to efficiency for big deficit reductions

Dynan, Karen, and Doug Elmendorf. "Don’t look to efficiency for big deficit reductions." What awaits the Department of Government Efficiency? vlog experts on prospects for a radical new initiative, January 15, 2025.

Playing Divide-and-Choose Given Uncertain Preferences

Tucker-Foltz, Jamie, and Richard Zeckhauser. "Playing Divide-and-Choose Given Uncertain Preferences." RWP22-008, December 2024.

Second-Best Amendment: Market Power and Tax Design in the Firearms Industry

Armona, Luis, and Adam M. Rosenberg. "Second-Best Amendment: Market Power and Tax Design in the Firearms Industry." December 13, 2024.

Supporting Postsecondary Readiness in Rural Districts: Experimental Evidence from a Rural Research Network

Swanson, Elise, Jennifer Ash, Sativa Thompson, Lisa Sanbonmatsu, Christopher Avery, Douglas O. Staiger, and Thomas J. Kane. "Supporting Postsecondary Readiness in Rural Districts: Experimental Evidence from a Rural Research Network." Center for Education Policy Research and National Center for Rural Education Research Networks, December 2024.

Fiscal policy and the pandemic-era surge in US inflation: Lessons for the future

Dynan, Karen, and Douglas Elmendorf. "Fiscal policy and the pandemic-era surge in US inflation: Lessons for the future." Understanding the COVID Era Inflation, Peterson Institute for International Economics, December 2024.

The True Cost of Living

Summers, Lawrence H., Marijn A. Bolhuis, and Judd Cramer. "The True Cost of Living." Finance & Development. December 2024.

Eight Questions—and Some Answers—on the US Fiscal Situation

Furman, Jason. "Eight Questions—and Some Answers—on the US Fiscal Situation." Strengthening America’s Economic Dynamism. Ed. Melissa S. Kearney and Luke Pardue. Washington, D.C.: Aspen Institute, 2024, 136-165.

GDP as a Measure of Economic Well-Being

Dynan, Karen, and Louise Sheiner. "GDP as a Measure of Economic Well-Being." The Measure of Economies: Measuring Productivity in an Age of Technological Change. Ed. Reinsdorf, Marshall B. and Louise Sheiner. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 2024.

How Big is the “Biggest Climate Spending Bill Ever?” Key Factors Influencing the Inflation Reduction Act’s Clean Energy Impacts

Aldy, Joseph. "How Big is the “Biggest Climate Spending Bill Ever?” Key Factors Influencing the Inflation Reduction Act’s Clean Energy Impacts." RWP24-007, November 2024.

Global health 2050: the path to halving premature death by
mid-century

Jamison, Dean T., Lawrence H. Summers, et al. "Global health 2050: the path to halving premature death by mid-century." The Lancet 404.10462 (October 2024): 1561-1614.

Technological Disruption in the US Labor Market

Deming, David, Christopher Ong, and Lawrence Summers. "Technological Disruption in the US Labor Market." Strengthening America’s Economic Dynamism. Ed. Melissa S. Kearney and Luke Pardue. Washington, DC: Aspen Institute, 2024.

International Lending in War and Peace

Horn, Sebastian, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Chrisoph Trebesch. "International Lending in War and Peace." October 2024.

Dynamic scoring: A progress report on why, when, and how

Elmendorf, Douglas, Glenn Hubbard, and Heidi Williams. "Dynamic scoring: A progress report on why, when, and how." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, September 26-27, 2024.

Review of The Resilient Society

Furman, Jason. Review of The Resilient Society, by Markus K. Brunnermeier. Journal of Economic Literature, 62.3, September 2024: 1258-1259.

Diagnosing Wyoming's Workforce Challenges

Lamby, Lucas, Sophia Henn, Tim O’Brien, and Ricardo Hausmann. "Diagnosing Wyoming's Workforce Challenges." Growth Lab Working Paper Series, July 2024.

Martin L. Weitzman (1942–2019)

Stavins, Robert N., and Gernot Wagner. "Martin L. Weitzman (1942–2019)." The Palgrave Companion to Harvard Economics. Palgrave Macmillan, 2024.

How Do You Find a Good Manager?

Weidmann, Ben, Joseph Vecci, Farah Said, David J. Deming, and Sonia R. Bhalotra. "How Do You Find a Good Manager?" July 2024.

Review of The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism

Elmendorf, Douglas. Review of The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism, by Martin Wolf. Journal of Economic Literature, 62.2, June 2024: 818-20.

Sovereign Debt: 200 Years of Creditor Losses

Graf Von Luckner, Clemens, Josefin Meyer, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Christoph Trebesch. "Sovereign Debt: 200 Years of Creditor Losses." NBER Working Paper Series, June 2024.

The Social Costs of Sovereign Default

Farah-Yacoub, Juan P., Clemens M. Graf von Luckner, and Carmen M. Reinhart. "The Social Costs of Sovereign Default." NBER Working Paper Series, June 2024.

What is Newsworthy? Theory and Evidence

Armona, Luis, Matthew Gentzkow, Emir Kamenica, and Jesse M. Shapiro. "What is Newsworthy? Theory and Evidence." May 21, 2024.

Measuring the Market for Legal Firearms

Armona, Luis, and Adam M. Rosenberg. "Measuring the Market for Legal Firearms." AEA Papers and Proceedings 114 (May 2024): 52-57.

Starting health reform from here

Furman, Jason. "Starting health reform from here." Journal of Policy Analysis and Management (April 30, 2024).

Which direction should we head to get to our North Star?

Furman, Jason. "Which direction should we head to get to our North Star?" Journal of Policy Analysis and Management (April 30, 2024).

America's Many Chip Vulnerabilities

Campanella, Edoardo, and John Haigh. "America's Many Chip Vulnerabilities." Project Syndicate, March 27, 2025.

Deterrence games and the disruption of information

Ma, Siyu, Yair Tauman, and Richard Zeckhauser. "Deterrence games and the disruption of information." International Journal of Game Theory 53 (March 2024): 261-287.

The Market and Climate Implications of U.S. LNG Exports

Stock, James H., and Matthew Zaragoza-Watkins. "The Market and Climate Implications of U.S. LNG Exports." NBER Working Paper Series, March 2024.

Steady-State Social Distancing and Vaccination

Avery, Christopher, Frederick Chen, and David McAdams. "Steady-State Social Distancing and Vaccination." American Economic Review: Insights 6.1 (March 2024): 1-19.

The Battle for the Internet

Campanella, Edoardo, and John Haigh. "The Battle for the Internet." Survival 66.1 (2024): 69-84.

The Cost of Money is Part of the Cost of Living: New Evidence on the Consumer Sentiment Anomaly

Bolhuis, Marijn A., Judd N. L. Cramer, Karl Oskar Schulz, and Lawrence H. Summers. "The Cost of Money is Part of the Cost of Living: New Evidence on the Consumer Sentiment Anomaly." NBER Working Paper Series, February 2024.

Redesigning Federal Student Aid in Sub-Baccalaureate Education

Armona, Luis, and Shengmao Cao. "Redesigning Federal Student Aid in Sub-Baccalaureate Education." 30 January 2024.

Homeward Bound: How Migrants Seek Out Familiar Climates

Obolensky, Marguerite, Marco Tabellini, and Charles Taylor. "Homeward Bound: How Migrants Seek Out Familiar Climates." vlog Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP24-001, January 2024.

How Does Accounting for Population Change Affect Estimates of the Effect of Immigration Policies on the Federal Budget?

Elmendorf, Douglas, and Heidi Williams. "How Does Accounting for Population Change Affect Estimates of the Effect of Immigration Policies on the Federal Budget?" Penn Wharton Budget Model, January 18, 2024.

Homeward Bound: How Migrants Seek Out Familiar Climates

Obolensky, Marguerite, Marco Tabellini, and Charles Taylor. "Homeward Bound: How Migrants Seek Out Familiar Climates." NBER Working Paper Series, January 2024.

High and Rising US Federal Debt: Causes and Implications

Dynan, Karen. "High and Rising US Federal Debt: Causes and Implications." Building a More Resilient US Economy. Ed. Melissa S. Kearney, Justin Schardin, and Luke Pardue. Washington, D.C.: Aspen Economic Strategy Group, 2023.

Advanced economies will experience subdued growth, outlook for emerging markets is varied

Dynan, Karen. "Advanced economies will experience subdued growth, outlook for emerging markets is varied." Peterson Institute for International Economics (September 29, 2023).

PIIE projects global economy poised for soft landing

Dynan, Karen. "PIIE projects global economy poised for soft landing." Peterson Institute for International Economics (September 26, 2023).

Fertilizer and Algal Blooms: A Satellite Approach to Assessing Water Quality

Taylor, Charles A., and Geoffrey Heal. "Fertilizer and Algal Blooms: A Satellite Approach to Assessing Water Quality." Risks in Agricultural Supply Chains. Ed. Pol Antràs and David Zilberman. University of Chicago Press, 2023, 83-106.

Incorporating DEI into Decision-Making

Chang, Edward, Siri Chilazi, James Elfer, Cansin Arslan, Erika Kirgios, Oliver Hauser, and Iris Bohnet. "Incorporating DEI into Decision-Making." Harvard Business Review. September 1, 2023.

Decrypting new age international capital flows

Graf von Luckner, Clemens, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff. "Decrypting new age international capital flows." Journal of Monetary Economics 138 (September 2023): 104-122.

China Wants to Run Your Internet

Campanella, Edoardo, and John Haigh. "China Wants to Run Your Internet." Foreign Policy. August 25, 2023.